Is It Really A Hit Parade If There's No Band Playing?

In the last Twins post, we looked at the curious bit of info that the Twins were eighth in the AL in slugging and on-base percentage at the start of July, despite having been dead last in OBP and near last in slugging at the end of April. The obvious conclusion is that the Twins' offense has improved, but the obvious questions related to that conclusion are:

1. How?
2. Can they keep it going?

We've looked at the Twins' offensive splits by month before as well, but a recap is in order:

April - .260 BA/666 OPS
May -   .273/740
June -  .284/764

As you might expect, some players are more responsible for that improvement than others. Here's a list of those most responsible:

Jason Kubel
April - .237/639 (101 plate appearances)
June - .312/1045 (93 plate appearances)

With the acquisition of Delmon Young via trade and Craig Monroe via free agency, Twins bloggers were concerned that current Twin Jason Kubel (known best for spectacularly blowing out his knee during the 2004 Arizona Fall League and missing the entire 2005 season in rehab) would end up being the odd-man out. Sentiment in the blogosphere was so overwhelmingly in favor of continuing to give Kubel his shot that a handful of bloggers spearheaded a 'Free Jason Kubel' campaign, hoping to draw attention to the slugging former prospect. Unfortunately, after a scorching few games early in the season, Kubel went into a funk so deep, while Monroe heated up, that I observed that perhaps it would be better to put Kubel back in the box.

Fortunately, Ron Gardenhire doesn't listen to me. Kubel did play a bit less often in May (81 plate appearances in 17 starts), but began rebounding during the month and by June was hitting as well as any Twin on the roster.

Kubel isn't as bad as he looked in April, but he's also not as good as he looked in June. If he can stay closer to June than to April for the rest of the year, he'll be easily worth an investment of over 450 plate appearances, which was Gardenhire's unofficial goal for Kubel early in the season.

Delmon Young
April - .265/619 (108 PA)
June - .321/817 (88 PA)

Delmon Young, by some measures, wasn't hitting too badly in April -- except that he wasn't hitting for much power (three doubles, a triple and no homers out of 27 hits) or drawing many walks (6 walks against 19 strikeouts in 108 PAs), so what Bill James would refer to as Young's 'secondary average' was awfully low. Young has improved in power in June (7 doubles and two homers out of 27 hits), but not in patience (3 walks against 16 strikeouts in 88 PAs), so while his OPS improvement is significant (it's hard to consider a near-200 point increase insignificant), it's still not as impressive as Kubel's.

At the same time, Young's June production is far more likely to be sustainable than Kubel's, at least from an OPS perspective; even if Young drops thirty to fifty points in batting average, a few extra doubles or homers (or a few extra walks) can help make up for it. While Young is unlikely to continue to hit over .300 the rest of the year, a 750 to 800 OPS would be right in line with most predictions for his 2008 season.

Joe Mauer
April - .295/744 (99 PAs)
June - .341/991 (104 PAs)

It's odd to think of Mauer -- the Twins first fan-elected All-Star since 2002 -- as being on a list of 'most improved' Twins offensively given those April numbers. Sure, he was a bit light in power, but overall those numbers aren't that far off from Mauer's 2007 numbers, when the Twins finished below .500.

In June, however, Mauer hit like the batting champion from 2006, and combined with a late-April shift from the #2 to the #3 spot in the batting order allowed Mauer to cement his claim at the Twins best offensive player, Justin Morneau notwithstanding.

Speaking of which, while Morneau has improved his batting average by nearly 50 points since April, his OPS has actually gone down -- he's gone from a team-leading 840 OPS in April (by a large margin -- second was Michael Cuddyer's 755) to a middle-of-the-pack 815 OPS in June.

As to whether Mauer can keep this up, well, I'm of two minds: on one hand, it would make sense that Mauer's 'real level of talent' likely falls somewhere between those two monthly totals. On the other hand, Mauer is in his prime, and those June numbers aren't that much better than his overall numbers for 2006 when he won the batting title and probably should have been considered more seriously for MVP. If Mauer stays healthy, it's certainly far from impossible that he might reprise his 2006 season in the second half.

Michael Cuddyer
April - .297/755 (40 PAs)
June - .291/866 (91 PAs)

In Cuddyer's case, the benefit to the Twins is partly due to the value of Cuddyer's production in June versus his production in April, but also due to the volume of that production; Cuddyer spent a good portion of April on the disabled list, and though Denard Span looked good enough in person (and did well enough on his return to AAA to stay on the Twins' brass' minds), Span's .258/582 line in 34 April PAs didn't come anywhere near replacing Cuddyer's bat.

Of course, as I write this, Cuddyer is back on the DL and Span is back up with the major league club (though Span played just one game for the Twins in June). Cuddyer may return after the All-Star break, and for this reason, the question for Cuddyer is not if he can maintain his level of production (though his June production is higher than his career average), but if he can stay healthy enough to contribute down the stretch.

The Replacements
April -
Mike Lamb - .205/508 (84 PAs)
Nick Punto - .250/568 (44 PAs)
Adam Everett - .185/437 (29 PAs)
total - .214/510 (157 PAs)

June -
Matt Macri - .333/839 (28 PAs)
Brian Buscher - .360/810 (54 PAs)
Alexi Casilla - .304/742 (114 PAs)
total - .324/757 (196 PAs)

You might not think a .324/757 line was all that impressive; though it's certainly a nice batting average, it doesn't necessarily show a lot of power or patience. But by the standards set by the Twins left-side infielders and reserves in April, .324/757 is like a cool oasis in a parched desert. Nick Punto and Adam Everett both lost their roles due to injury, though Punto is back and reprising the role of super-sub he played to the hilt in 2006. Mike Lamb, however, just seems to have lost his way, which is an unfortunate coda to his major-league career; Lamb is signed through 2009 with a club option for 2010, but at this point it's hard to see the Twins, or any other club for that matter, taking a chance on Lamb for more than the league minimum for his service time.

Macri is back in AAA with Punto's return, but Buscher and Casilla are still playing -- Buscher certainly wouldn't maintain his own pace with regular play, but his numbers can't really get much worse given his reserve role, even if his performance drops off a bit. Meanwhile, Casilla seems to have grabbed hold of the everyday second-base job for the Twins, displacing Brendan Harris to shortstop and (lately) third base. Casilla's numbers may also tail off as the season wears on, but the Twins still have the option of moving Harris (.249/652 overall) back to second if Casilla falls off the planet.

So on the whole, the Twins' offense is clearly better now than it was at the start of the year, which should let us put a nice caveat in discussions that compare the Twins current scoring with their season-overall offensive numbers. And, while it's likely that the offense won't stay this good for the rest of 2008...

1. it's not likely to regress all the way back to the April numbers, and
2. there's likely the potential for continued improvement in the pitching staff to make up for any drop-off from the offense

I never expected to say this at the beginning of the season, but these Twins appear to be for real.