Morneau Wins Derby, All-Star Game, Is Ignored

The All-Star break was fairly eventful for Minnesota Twins first-baseman Justin Morneau. On Monday, he won the Home Run Derby despite going up against a guy who set a new record for most homers in a single round of the Derby. Better writers than I have already commented about how Morneau's win is emblematic of the Twins philosophy, in that it doesn't matter whether or not you 'dominate', but when you make your push, as well as pointing out the odd conundrum that, despite America supposedly being a land that celebrates 'winners', Morneau was overshadowed by a guy who did heroin and then stopped, set a record, and yet still lost the contest in which he was participating.

Then Morneau, who didn't start the All-Star game, entered in the top of the 6th with the A.L. trailing 2-0. He doubled in his first at-bat, then scored on J.D. Drew's homer to tie the game at 2. Though he grounded out to the pitcher in the bottom of the 8th with the go-ahead run at 2nd, he made up for it in the 15th by hitting a leadoff single and eventually scoring the game-winning run on Michael Young's sacrifice fly with the bases loaded. (Of course, my favorite Morneau moment of the game was in the 12th, when he was intentionally walked with one out and a runner at 3rd so that Aaron Cook could pitch to Ian Kinsler -- yes, Morneau was walked so the N.L. could pitch to the A.L.'s batting average leader. Marvelous!)

Note that both of Morneau's hits were significant. Let's imagine instead that Morneau started the game and was replaced by Carlos Quentin, who went 0-4. In that case:

- The 7th inning ends, not on a 2-run game-tying homer, but on Navarro's strikeout. Drew then leads off the next inning, not against Volquez, but against Wilson. Even if he still hits a homer, it's only 2-1 and it's possible the game doesn't get to extra innings.

- If the game somehow still gets to extra innings, the 15th inning ends, not with a game-winning sac fly for the second out, but with a fly out to right to end the inning with two on, and the game continues with J.D. Drew potentially entering the game in the 17th as a 'disaster pitcher'.

For his effort -- 2 for 4 with a double, a walk, and two of the A.L.'s four runs scored, what's Morneau's reward? To see Drew handed the MVP for a game-tying homer hit eight full innings before the game ended, and to be described by Salon's King Kaufman (still one of my favorite baseball writers) as "slow-footed Minnesota first baseman Justin Morneau" who "tagged and rumbled down the line, beating an anemic two-bounce throw".

I'll forgive you, King.

Interestingly enough, Morneau is really growing on me as a Twins player. When he first came up in 2003, Doug Mientkiewicz had an OBP of .393 and was playing first base as well as anybody in the league, while Morneau hit a highly unimpressive .226/664 in limited play as a 22-year old. But in 2004, with the Twins in the thick of a pennant race and Mientkiewicz slumping, the blogosphere seemed to latch onto the big Canadian, who hit .271/876 with 19 homers in about a half-season's play and was lauded the next big thing, even being christened by some bloggers as 'Lil Harmon'. Mientkiewicz was traded to Boston at the deadline, and Morneau was drooled over as being a perennial 40 HR guy...which he hasn't even come all that close to. Morneau's career high in homers is 34 in his MVP season (2006); he hit 31 homers last year, and would have to go on a serious tear in the second half to even reach 30 this year, since he's standing at 14 after 95 games.

So why am I liking Morneau more these days? He's growing into what might be considered a prototypical Twins player, again highlighted by his Derby performance -- it's not that he crushes you, but he does what he needs to do to beat you.

For starters, his defense has improved since he entered the league full-time. In 2004, Morneau played just a half-season, but the defensive difference between him and Mientkiewicz was stark: among AL first-basemen with at least 250 defensive innings, Mientkiewicz had the highest Revised Zone Rating, while Morneau was sixth from the bottom, close to noted defensive butchers Mike Sweeney and Howie Clark. Even as late as 2006, Morneau was dead last in RZR among first baseman qualified for the batting title. But by 2007, Morneau had improved to middle-of-the-pack, and has stayed there ever since, his glove even being worth 1.0 fielding Win Shares thus far in 2008. He'll probably never be a great defensive first-baseman, but he's worked his way up from being a liability, and that deserves credit.

Also, Morneau is an excellent baserunner, Kaufman's description of him as 'slow-footed' notwithstanding. To see why, allow me to throw some 2008 stats at you:

We mentioned in a previous post that Joe Mauer had just 37 RBI hitting in front of Carlos Gomez, while Morneau had 65 hitting in front of Mauer, and that difference was due mainly to Gomez's inability to reach base consistently. Interestingly enough, heading into the break, Mauer was also leading the team with 58 runs scored, which you'd expect, since he's got the team's best on-base percentage and is hitting right in front of the heart of the order.

Justin Morneau has 55 runs scored, second on the team. Yes, Morneau has more runs scored than Carlos Gomez (who has 50). Morneau also has a great on-base percentage, though it's not as good as Mauer's (Mauer's OBP = .418, Morneau's OBP = .391) But getting on base is just half of the equation; you also have to be able to score on someone's hit or out.

Mauer, who's hit 3rd nearly all year, is hitting ahead of a batting order slot that's tallied a .321/895 hitting line. Morneau, who's hit 4th in every game he's played this year, is hitting ahead of a batting order slot that's tallied a .244/682 batting line. Mauer's been hitting ahead of Morneau all year, while Morneau has effectively been hitting ahead of Ryan Garko. And while the 5-spot for the Twins hasn't been very impressive, it's not significantly worse than the Twins' six and seven slots (.251/734 and .268/700 respectively). It helps that Morneau's been on base 161 times this year, third in the AL, but Mauer's been on base 150 times and is hitting ahead of a guy with about an extra 200 points of OPS.

The difference isn't speed -- Morneau's not as lumbering as you might think, but he's no Carlos Gomez -- but intelligence. Watching Morneau, you see how he recognizes situations where he can take an extra base (such as the base he grabbed on defensive indifference after being intentionally walked in the All-Star Game).

The guy works hard, he's got smarts, and he can smack 25-35 homers a year. He's still overrated in some circles, but he's becoming one of my favorite Twins precisely because so many people seem to miss the little things he does that don't dazzle, but still win games.