2002: closer - Eddie Guardado (45 sv, 2.93 ERA)
setup - LaTroy Hawkins (6-0, 2.13 ERA)*
2003: closer - Eddie Guardado (41 sv, 2.89 ERA)
setup - LaTroy Hawkins (9-3, 1.86 ERA)
2004: closer - Joe Nathan (44 sv, 1.62 ERA)
setup - Juan Rincon (11-6, 2.63 ERA)
2005: closer - Joe Nathan (43 sv, 2.70 ERA)
setup - Juan Rincon (6-6, 2.45 ERA)**
2006: closer - Joe Nathan (36 sv, 1.58 ERA)
setup - Jesse Crain (4-5, 3.52 ERA)***
2007: closer - Joe Nathan (37 sv, 1.88 ERA)
setup - Pat Neshek (7-2, 2.94 ERA)****
* - J.C. Romero was 9-2 with 1 save and a 1.89 ERA
** - Jesse Crain was 12-5 with 1 save and a 2.71 ERA
*** - Juan Rincon was 3-1 with 1 save and a 2.91 ERA
**** - Matt Guerrier was 2-4 with 1 save and a 2.35 ERA
Because of this level of bullpen performance, and because the Twins in this era have won their division title more often than not, an idea has taken hold in the minds of many Twins fans (and a number of Twins bloggers) that a good team needs an elite (or to reluctantly use their term, 'dominant') 8th-inning setup guy.
The idea is odd to me, though -- looking at the data above, you'd be hard-pressed to draw any solid conclusion. After all, the Twins won the division in Nathan's best save season and in his worst; they won in their best setup guy season by ERA (2003) and in their worst (2006); they won when Nathan had his best ERA and when he had his worst ERA. They even lost the division as often as they won it when they had a third reliever who was 'elite'.
Ultimately, though, it shouldn't surprise anybody that this kind of limited cut at the numbers doesn't lead to a definite conclusion -- only in cases where the correlation is patently obvious would such a quick-and-dirty analysis demonstrate anything real.
So let's look a bit deeper.
The gist of the 'elite 8th-inning guy' argument is that the Twins wouldn't be able to continue to compete in the AL Central race without an elite set-up guy to turn to in order to get through the 8th innings of close games (or, conversely, use Joe Nathan in that role). But there are a number of unspoken premises behind that argument:
- The Twins need an 8th-inning guy to be good.
Hard to argue this one, since they haven't had a 'bad' 8th inning guy since this run of division titles, and their 'worst' 8th inning guy, Jesse Crain in 2006, still helped them win a title. Still, that doesn't make the claim true, simply untested, in that the Twins haven't had to try to win a title without at least a solid setup guy.
- The Twins don't have that guy in 2008.
Even the most ardent 'Twins need an elite 8th-inning guy' blogger would accept that the Twins had such a guy at the start of the season in Pat Neshek. Oddly, Neshek's raw numbers don't really place him among the top 8th-inning guys in recent Twins history -- both Rincon's 2004 season and Crain's 2005 would come out as better in my own analysis -- and Neshek's own 2008 numbers were surprisingly poor (0-1, 4.73 ERA in 13.1 innings) before being lost for the season with arm troubles.
Since then, the Twins have tried a number of guys in the role, and none of them seem to have met the standards of the blogosphere: Matt Guerrier (6-6, 4.78 ERA), Juan Rincon before his release (2-2, 6.11 ERA), and Brian Bass before his demotion back to AAA (3-4, 4.87 ERA). Certainly none of these guys' numbers compares to the historical norm.
But then there's Jesse Crain. Crain's 2008 numbers may not scream 'elite' (5-3, 3.74), but they're not far off his 2006 numbers above. In addition, Crain has held the role before. It's hard to argue that Crain isn't capable of filling the role, unless you focus far too much on individual failures rather than the big picture.
Which brings us to last night's game in Seattle. The Twins, finally bowing to pressure both internal and external, acquired former closer Eddie Guardado from the Rangers and had him flown to the game in time to enter in the 8th inning to protect a 2-1 lead. Guardado set down the Mariners in order, and Nathan entered in the ninth to ice the game.
Unfortunately, nobody told Adrian Beltre, whose leadoff double in the 9th led to Nathan's fourth blown save of the year, and who then cranked a two-run homer off of Crain in the 11th to win the game for the Mariners.
Ultimately, though, the largest unspoken presumption of the 'Twins need an elite 8th-inning guy' argument is this one:
- Good teams don't lose games in the 8th inning.
Looking at overall scoring by inning in the AL, I'd at first glance tend to agree: the lowest-scoring inning in the AL is the 9th, which is actually a bit misleading, since the fact that the home team doesn't bat in the ninth with a lead means that thus far in 2008 there have been nearly 2000 fewer plate appearances by teams in the 9th than any other regularly scheduled inning. Still, the 8th inning is the third-lowest scoring inning (at 919 runs in 7797 PAs), just behind the 2nd (887 runs in 7724 PAs) and far ahead of the 9th (563 runs in 5791 PAs). If teams aren't scoring as much in the 8th, that means they're not winning as many games in the 8th (and conversely, not losing as many), right?
Well, scoring by itself doesn't really suggest where games are being won and lost -- for that, we should look at individual teams. Since we're interested in good teams, we'll look at the top four teams in the AL other than the Twins:
Tampa Bay - the Rays are tied for the best record in the AL right now and have lost only 50 games all season. Their bullpen is 26-16, and none of the losses have been charged to closer Troy Percival. Five losses, though, have been charged to setup man Dan Wheeler, who also has 8 saves and a 2.57 ERA. Also, oddly enough, the 8th inning is one of the easiest in which to score against the Rays -- they've allowed 69 runs in the 8th this season, only two behind their most prolific runs-allowed inning, the 3rd. The real mystery here is that the Rays' best runs-allowed inning is actually the 7th, where they've allowed just 33 runs. (They've allowed 39 in the 9th, by comparison.) So while the Rays haven't lost a lot of games in the 8th inning, it's hard to claim that it's a good inning for them. Yet they're on top of the AL East and close to being on top of the league. It's hard to argue, though, that the Rays have an 'elite' 8th-inning guy.
Anaheim - if there's a team in the AL who can be said to have had a better bullpen than the Twins over the past six seasons, it'd have to be the Angels. This year, the Angel bullpen is solid; their record is just 20-16, but closer Francisco Rodriguez has 50 saves and only one regular reliever (Justin Speier) has an ERA over 3.00. In terms of runs allowed, Anaheim's worst inning is the 5th -- they've allowed 82 runs in that frame -- but their second-worst is the 7th with 70 runs allowed. Their 8th and 9th innings are excellent, though, with 53 and 46 runs allowed respectively. The bullpen has long been a part of the Angels' success, and that doesn't seem to be any different in 2008. The Angels probably make the best case for having an 'elite' 8th-inning guy, though exactly which pitcher that guy is might be a question for debate.
Boston - the Red Sox have had some notorious bullpen troubles, including their famous attempt at a 'bullpen by committee' back in the early part of this decade. The Red Sox, of course, won the World Series back in 2004 well before making Jonathan Papelbon their closer, and their 2008 bullpen looks decent if unspectacular once you get past the closer -- lefthanders Javier Lopez and Hideki Okajima have had impressive looking seasons with ERAs below 3.00, while righthanders Manny Delcarmen and David Aardsma have poorer-looking ERAs, but not a great difference in actual won-lost record. (The lefties are 5-2 with 1 save, while the righthanders are 3-4 with 1 save.) Their runs allowed splits also look solid in the late innings -- just 30 runs allowed in the 9th and 59 in the 8th, which is right along the pace of the AL as a whole. Boston's strength in pitching is more in their starting rotation than their middle relief, but they don't seem unduly disadvantaged in the late innings. They clearly don't have an 'elite' 8th-inning guy, though.
Chicago - over the years, the White Sox have had legitimate reason to be concerned with the state of their middle relief. In 2008, though, it appears to be at least decent if not solid. Closer Bobby Jenks has been extremely solid even if he doesn't have the save count of more well-known relievers, and lefty Matt Thornton and righty Scott Linebrink both hold ERAs below 3.00. Former closer Octavio Dotel has been serving as the main setup guy, and his numbers aren't that much worse than Jesse Crain's (4-4, 3.81 ERA). Chicago's runs-against by inning have been amazingly balanced -- they've allowed 81 runs in the 6th, but all their other innings fall in a scoring range from 50 (9th) to 68 (3rd) runs; they've allowed 61 in the 8th and 55 (their second-best total) in the 7th. Dotel clearly isn't an 'elite' 8th-inning guy, but the White Sox are still doing reasonably well in the late innings.
So there you have it; the other top four teams in the AL have decent-to-good bullpens without having anybody having the kind of 'elite' season that Baltimore's Jim Johnson (2-4, 2.26 ERA) or Toronto's Scott Downs (0-2, 1.34 ERA) is having. To be a good team, you don't need an 'elite' 8th-inning guy, just a bullpen good enough to get the game to your closer in the 9th.
And then, of course, the closer needs to do his job...
0 comments:
Post a Comment