Another Bullet Dodged

The Minnesota Twins embarked on a 14-game road trip back on August 21st. Given that the Twins, despite their position just half a game behind the Chicago White Sox, had amassed a sub-.500 record on the road, there was some thought that perhaps this might be the stretch that knocked the Twins out of contention. And, sure enough, the Twins performed as poorly as advertised on the road: a record of 5-9 on the trip, culminating with a three-game sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays at Rogers Centre.

Despite going 5-9, though, the Twins find themselves losing only one game in the standings, as the White Sox, on their own long road trip, did little better. In retrospect, this should have been obvious -- the Sox did have slightly tougher opposition overall on the trip, in that they had to face the playoff-contending Red Sox in the midst of the trip, but the real insight would have been to simply glance at the two teams' road records on August 20th:

Minnesota   46-23 @home    26-31 @road
Chicago     45-20 @home    28-34 @road

Folks might look at the Twins' home-road split and curse the quirky Metrodome, but Chicago's home-road split is nearly identical, and even more so now:

Minnesota   46-23 @home    31-40 @road
Chicago     46-22 @home    32-39 @road

Down a game and a half with 22 to play, including three at home versus the team they're chasing. To borrow a line from Cyrano DeBergerac, "Somehow this news fails to disquiet me."

The Twins and White Sox each head home to begin weekend series tomorrow: the Twins would seem to have an advantage hosting the Tigers while the Sox welcome the Angels into town. But the one thing baseball in general, and the past few seasons in particular, should teach you: take nothing as obvious or at face value.

That's part of the fun, after all.