Interlude #2 - Told Ya

Note to self: Stop writing these interlude pieces and finish the danged myths series already!

Back in 2001, former Minnesota Twins outfielder Kirby Puckett was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame on the first ballot by the Baseball Writers Association of America. At the time, I thought it was a bad move, and have occasionally repeated that sentiment online, usually to much razzing and ado from Twins partisans.

Then I stopped by Joe Posnanski's blog today.

Posnanski is discussing the Hall of Fame, and making the argument that there are three routes, for an non-pitcher, to getting in via the BBWAA vote: hit a milestone (Posnanski uses 3000 hits and 500 HR, though those specific milestones may be in danger, especially the last one), be an excellent defensive player with some offense at catcher, shortstop, second, or occasionally third, or bring intangibles.

He lists Kirby Puckett as one of the six players let in under the 'intangibles' rubric, but also notes:

3. Kirby Puckett
Comment: This was not an especially controversial pick at the time — but it is now.

Posnanski attributes Puckett's popularity in the BBWAA vote to having a decent case to begin with, then getting a huge emotional boost from both Puckett's own popularity as a player as well as the perceived tragedy of Puckett's retirement due to glaucoma (though the official plaque in the HoF doesn't use the simple term 'glaucoma', preferring to use the more medically accurate and wordier 'irreversable retina damage in his right eye'; why this is true could spawn conspiracy theories, I'm sure). I agree with this analysis. The part I don't completely agree with is his followup:

In retrospect, Puckett will probably be viewed as one of the poorer choices by the BBWAA....

I'm not sure it's necessary to say 'in retrospect', here, because for some of us (ahem), it was pretty danged clear from the opening bell that Puckett wasn't as great a HoFer as he seemed in 2001.

A bit of clarification: I'm not, and never have, claimed that Puckett is one of the weakest Hall of Famers ever enshrined -- there are pretty clearly players already in the Hall on the day Puckett entered who weren't nearly as good as he was. The issue is that, if you list the players you think of as the weakest Hall of Famers, you'll find that they're almost all Veteran's Committee picks. Let me crib from Bill James's own list of the Hall of Famers with the fewest Hall of Fame standards as defined in his book "Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame?":

C - Ray Schalk (A good catcher, but enshrined more for his presence as one of the few members of the 1919 White Sox who stayed honest.)
1B - George Kelly/Frank Chance (Kelly was an outstanding defensive first baseman by reputation who also allegedly was a great clutch hitter -- John McGraw said that Kelly had more important hits than any other player he'd managed; though they didn't track OPS+ in those days, Kelly had just two seasons with a better than 120 rating, meaning he was, in that way, his era's Doug Mientkiewicz -- Chance, of course, was part of the famous trio from the poem)
2B - Johnny Evers
SS - Joe Tinker
3B - Jimmy Collins (a turn-of-the-century player who jumped to the nascent American League when it formed in 1901, credited with player-managing the World Series champion Boston club in 1904; what defensive numbers survive suggest he was a solid defensive third-baseman for his era but not overwhelmingly good, and his offensive contributions were solid as well, though his 1904 season was one of his poorest as a player during the AL portion of his career)
LF - Chick Hafey (His Hall plaque specifically mentions his .317 career batting average, but doesn't note that the league average was .291 during his career, which coincided with the start of the lively-ball era; he was a very good offensive player, with a peak OPS+ of about 150 and a career OPS of nearly .900, but he only played 13 seasons, and his career was basically over after his age 31 season)
CF - Lloyd Waner (before I looked it up, I'd have guessed Elmer Flick or Slidin' Billy Hamilton was the least-impressive centerfield HoFer, but the numbers show Waner was a high-average, no power, no walks hitter in an era where people were walking and hitting for power all over the place; for example, in 1931, Waner led the NL in hits with 214, batted .314 against a league average of .284, but had an OBP of just .352 against a league average of .343 and slugged .407 against a league average of .401. He set the major league record for singles in a season until Ichiro broke it, but his career OPS+ was just 99.)
RF - Tommy McCarthy (known as one of the 'Heavenly Twins', McCarthy played his entire career in the 19th century, and as such might not be an entirely fair target as least-impressive right-field HoFer. On the other hand, McCarthy also played just 13 seasons and finished with a career OPS+ of 102, meaning he was just about an average performer statistically for his era)

Every one of these players was elected by the Veteran's Committee, not by the BBWAA.

The least-credentialed non-pitcher elected by the BBWAA may well be Ralph Kiner, who qualifies as only having earned 34% of Hall of Fame standards according to baseball-reference.com. Kiner played just 10 seasons, and was elected in his final year of BBWAA eligibility in 1975 with only one vote to spare -- had only 271 rather than 273 writers placed Kiner on the ballot, he would not have been elected. In other words, you can probably make Kiner your definition of a borderline Hall of Famer.

Puckett met 39% of Hall of Fame standards, significantly ahead of Kiner, but not so far ahead that he ranks among the 'typical' Hall of Famer. Puckett ranks even with Joe Torre and Juan Gonzalez on the career list of Hall of Fame standards, and even falls a bit behind Jim Edmonds, Al Oliver, Nomar Garciaparra, and Ellis Burks, none of whom were or are likely to be elected to the Hall based on their playing careers (Torre has a solid shot when his managerial career is considered as well). Lou Whitaker met 41% of Hall of Fame standards, and was dropped from the first ballot he ever appeared on.

The real embarrassment, though, is not that Puckett is in the Hall and better, more accomplished players are not -- if that were the case, then half of the members of the Hall of Fame would be considered embarrassments. No, the real embarrassment is that Puckett was named on the first ballot; only one player with fewer Hall of Fame standards was ever inducted on the first ballot, and Jackie Robinson's intangibles pretty much trump Puckett's all the way around.

In his New Historical Baseball Abstract, Bill James ranked Puckett as the #8 centerfielder in baseball history and suggested his early exit from baseball shouldn't harm his chances of making the Hall of Fame. Considering that Puckett's career Win Shares are nearly identical to those of Jim Rice (and Win Shares does compensate for park effects and defensive contibutions), and that Rice is only a possible Hall of Famer this season in his final year of BBWAA eligibility, and that Puckett actually has fewer Win Shares than Royal outfielder Amos Otis, who received exactly zero votes for the Hall in his only year of eligibility, perhaps even James might re-examine Puckett's candidacy for the Hall of Fame.