Interlude: That was quick...

Taking a short break from the 'five myths' series to comment on a strange shift in the weather in the Twins blogosphere over the past few weeks: the degree to which Twins bloggers are turning on Delmon Young.

Young is a former #1 overall pick by the Tampa Bay Rays (back when they were still the Devil Rays), who was eventually perceived by that organization to be a bit less stellar than advertised. Perhaps it makes sense that the team that drafted you #1 overall would be disappointed that you didn't take the majors completely by storm, especially when you make a big show out of signing a significant contract before even playing a single minor-league ballgame.

Why would Twins bloggers turn on Young? It's a bit of a mystery. Let's start with Stick & Ball Guy's article, 'Looking Back At The Delmon Debacle'.

Right off the bat I have a problem -- sure, SBG is an internet guy and reaches for the hyperbole a bit more often than would be warranted by a more sober analyst, but to describe a season where Young served as the primary Twins left-fielder and helped the club to force a 163rd game to determine the outcome of the AL Central division title as a 'debacle' is a bit beyond the pale. What would SBG have said if Young's season had been as bad as that of Carlos Gomez?

Wait, he says that Gomez had a better year than Young? How's that again?

Oh, he does it by cherry-picking metrics, and then misinterpreting them. For starters, SBG claims that Young was overall below replacement level in value because of his -18.4 runs as measured by UZR. Of course, UZR runs aren't measured from the replacement level, but from the league average. Since SBG doesn't note whether he's using STATS UZR (which doesn't weight for handedness or ground/flyball pitcher tendencies, park effects, or even the estimated difficulty of the batted ball) or Mitchel Lichtman's more advanced UZR (which does adjust for these factors), I can't speak to how accurate the metric might be. I will point out that the Hardball Times Win Shares analysis has Young earning more defensive Win Shares in left field than Denard Span earned in right for the Twins in 2008, so the idea that Young was costing the Twins ballgames with his glove isn't necessarily a hard, undeniable fact -- even in Young's infamously bad defensive game against the Royals, the Twins eventually rallied and won. Of course, with Young trailing all major-league left-fielders in Dewan plus/minus in 2008, it seems that his reputation is assured, at least, despite nearly all of that minus total having been put up in 2008 -- the three-year plus/minus totals have Young comfortably ahead of true defensive butchers like Pat Burrell and Manny Ramirez.

For the record, that Hardball Times link above shows that Young and Gomez had roughly equivalent seasons in terms of Win Shares, with Young slightly ahead. So no, it's not obvious that Gomez had a better year.

SBG also complains that Young "supposedly had this crazy high ceiling" when he was acquired by the Twins, though the reason why is pretty clear to see if you look at it -- certainly his ceiling is far higher than that of Carlos Gomez:

- Young and Gomez are nearly the same age; Young (born September 14, 1985) is actually less than three months older than Gomez (born December 4, 1985). For baseball purposes, they are the same age, so any potential development available to Gomez is, in theory, exactly as available to Young.

- Young has had better production in the minor leagues than Gomez; Gomez batted .278 with 18 home runs in 1291 minor league at-bats, primarily at A and AA. Young has hit .318 with 59 home runs (more in each of two different seasons than Gomez has hit in his entire minor league career) in 1413 minor league at-bats, mainly at AA and AAA.

- Young has put up those superior numbers while playing against tougher competition at the same age. When Gomez was 18, he spent the entire season playing for the Mets' two rookie-league teams; Young spent his age-18 season in A-ball for the Rays. At 19, Gomez spent the whole year in A-ball; Young split time between AA and AAA. Gomez got a fairly good-sized cup of coffee with the Mets due to outfield injuries in his age-21 season; Young spent his entire age-21 seasaon on the Ray's big-league roster and finished 2nd in the Rookie of the Year vote that season.

Anybody who claims that Gomez has a higher ceiling than Young doesn't know what the hell he's talking about. Though similarity scores are notoriously sketchy for players with such few actual big-league appearances, it's still telling that Young's of-age comps include Hall of Famers Roberto Clemente and Carl Yastrzemski (Yaz is actually Young's #1 of-age comp), while Gomez's of-age comps include Milt Cuyler and Lee Mazzilli. Young could continue to disappoint and still end up with a career not far from Larry Hisle's, while Gomez would have to gain about thirty points of batting average just to be the next Ted Uhlaender.

Okay, now I'm engaging in a bit of hyperbole, but just a bit. Right now, people are complaining because Jason Bartlett is getting way more credit than he deserves for the Rays run to the World Series last year, and Matt Garza hasn't yet proven himself a head-case with his new ballclub. Had the Twins won game 163 and advanced to the Series themselves, I doubt there would be nearly as much Delmon Young hatred on teh interwebs as I've seen of late.

If the Twins can get a good deal for Young, I won't complain, but the final nail in SBG's coffin comes when he talks about how much better not just Carlos Gomez is than Delmon Young, but how great it would be if the Twins acquired journeyman Gabe Gross, traded to the Rays for a minor leaguer during the 2008 season. Now Gross is far from a worthless player -- he'll take a walk and occasionally surprise you with some pop in his bat, and he's a solid if unspectacular defensive outfielder. But let's put it this way -- Gabe Gross's career, to this point, has been nearly identical (similarity score 960) to that of Dustan Mohr through his age 28 season. Mohr started falling off the planet at age 29, and didn't get even a single big-league at-bat in 2008. Gross would have been a great acquisition back in 2005, when he could have filled Mohr's role on the club after the latter's departure from the Twins; picking Gross up now would be like taking a flyer on Rickey Henderson. Long-term plan, this ain't.

All indications are that Young had real problems adjusting to the Metrodome defensively, and word from sources indicates that Young has something to prove this season, possibly his last before arbitration. Given how close the Twins were to the playoffs last year, and how much room Young has in his upside, I think the Twins would be crazy not to at least give Young a chance to show the club what he can do.

Of course, Ron Gardenhire is thinking of starting Nick Punto at short and Carlos Gomez in the outfield, so it might well be a long, long summer.