Top Five Myths of the Twins 2008 Season - pt 4

The Twins did pretty well in 2008, falling just one game shy of the AL Central Division title. There's been a lot of talk about how the team can improve for 2009, though, and that talk tends to follow one of two threads:

Myth #4: The Twins need to keep their young 5-man rotation intact and allow them to develop.

Or, alternately...

Myth #4a: If the Twins do need to give up on one of their starters to acquire an offensive player, deal Nick Blackburn.

Let me start out by saying that the idea of keeping the rotation fairly intact isn't, in and of itself, a horrible idea. Most fans who propose this line of thinking are probably, consciously or not, comparing the current Twins to the Atlanta Braves circa 1991.

The Braves had just bounced from worst-to-first, making the World Series for the first time since they were the Milwaukee Braves back in 1958. Even then, the strength of their team was in their starting pitching, and it was put together in a way that'll look very familiar to current Twins fans: one veteran starter serving as staff ace (Charlie Leibrandt) and five other pitchers, all of whom were under 26 years of age. By the start of the 1993 season, the Braves had replaced Leibrandt with former Cub Greg Maddux, and their reign over the American League East was locked-in; starting from 1991, the Braves won fourteen straight division titles, though just a single World Series title in all that time.

So let's go back to 1991. The best hitter on your team is probably 30-year old third baseman Terry Pendleton, though your best home run hitter is centerfielder Ron Gant. However, you do have a few holes in your offense: catcher Greg Olson, first-baseman Sid Bream, and shortstop Rafael Belliard are all among the worst offensive performers for their positions, though Bream has the reputation of being one of the top defensive players at his position. You can already tell that your experiment with Deion Sanders isn't going to work out particularly well, and you're looking for a long-term upgrade at one of those three positions, but in order to do that, you're going to probably have to give up one of those five young starters. Of those five starters, only three really have any trade value, and they rack up like this:

A - 25 yrs old - 20-11, 2.55 ERA in 1991, 33-41, 4.29 ERA in 105 career starts prior to 1991
B - 24 yrs old - 14-13, 3.80 ERA in 1991, 28-29, 3.68 ERA in 75 career starts prior to 1991
C - 21 yrs old - 18-8, 3.38 ERA in 1991, 3-11, 5.64 ERA in 20 career starts prior to 1991

As additional information, pitcher A was a late 2nd round draft pick who'd compiled a 7-17, mid-4 ERA at AAA prior to first being called up, while striking out 103 and walking 83 in 190 innings. Pitcher B was a minor-league acquisition from another franchise, having been taken in the 22nd round, but who put together a combined 10-6, near-3 ERA pitching for the same AAA team pitcher A pitched for, while striking out 120 and walking 48 in 151 innings. Pitcher 3 was a #3 overall pick who didn't reach AAA until the other two pitchers were throwing in the majors, and compiled a 5-5, 3.39 ERA mark in 13 AAA starts, striking out 69 and walking 21 in 82 innings.

Pitcher A had struggled for years, but put together a breakout season and won the Cy Young in 1991 (that alone should be a dead giveaway as to his identity), while pitcher C finished sixth in the same vote. Who do you deal? The breakout pitcher, on the theory that his value will never be higher? The youngster, on the theory that he doesn't have as great a track record and might slow down? Or the man in the middle -- solid enough to contribute but not someone who looks like a potential star?

Pitcher C is Steve Avery, who put together another couple of good years before injury troubles began haunting him and eventually drove him out of baseball after a decent but unspectacular 11 year career (96-83, career park-adjusted ERA+ of 100).

Pitcher B is John Smoltz, who had only one breakout season of his own (in 1996, when he went 24-8 and won his only Cy Young award), but who was probably the best #3 starter in baseball for a decade until finally converting to closer after an injury rehab and nearly winning another Cy in that role. If Smoltz is done after just 28 innings of work in 2008, he departs with a decidedly above-average 20-year career (210-147 with 154 saves and a career park-adjusted ERA+ of 127).

Pitcher A is Tom Glavine, who would go on to become one of the top starters of his era (though eclipsed by his teammate Greg Maddux), and retires with a Hall-of-Fame caliber career (305 wins, 2607 strikeouts, two Cy Youngs and two other times finishing second in the voting, and a career ERA of 3.54).

This isn't to suggest that Nick Blackburn will become the next Tom Glavine -- the point, though, is that it's really difficult to tell at such a young age how a player will develop and what peaks and valleys he'll hit during the course of his career.

The other point in comparing the 2008 Twins to the 1991 Braves is that, of those five young starters, some of them faded from view, never to be noticed again. The other two starters not named above were 25-year old Armando Reynoso, who'd put together a decent 12-11 4.00 ERA in Coors Field in 1993 to start a peripatetic 10 year period as a semi-regular starter, and 25-year old Pete Smith, who'd hurled for the team when it was horrible (combined record of 30-48 with Atlanta) and who was quickly forgotten after being traded to the Mets for Dave Gallagher after the 1993 season.

The Braves during this era always had a strong rotation, but seldom had great #5 starters and often didn't have a particularly impressive #4 starter. The year the Braves won the Series, Avery was 7-13 with a 4.67 ERA and was pitching in pain, while Kent Mercker was the #5 starter who went 7-8 with a 4.15 ERA. The next year, when the Braves lost the Series to the Yankees, they tried to fill the #5 slot with Jason Schmidt (3-4, 6.75) and Denny Neagle (2-3, 5.59). Neagle went on to win 20 for the Braves in 1997, but the back of the rotation was a revolving door featuring stints by Terrell Wade (2-3, 5.36), Chris Brock (0-0, 5.58), and finally Kevin Millwood (5-3, 4.03). In 1998 both Neagle and Millwood helped give the Braves a true five-man powerhouse rotation, but they were knocked out of the post-season by the Padres anyway. Neagle was gone in 1999, though, and the Braves tried to replace him with Odalis Perez (4-6, 6.00), Terry Mulholland (4-2, 2.98), and Bruce Chen (2-2, 5.47). The Braves always seemed to have a Big Three, and often had a Big Fourth to join them, but very seldom did they have a true Big Five, which seems to be what most Twins fans are looking for from the current rotation.

Not to mention that the Twins have plenty of alternatives if any of their current Big Five can't answer the bell -- Boof Bonser was a solid starter for the Twins a couple of years ago and could be again given the opportunity, while Phil Humber is frequently projected as a middle-of-the-order starter, someone who might just thrive developing in the low-pressure #5 slot. And those are just two guys off the top of my head in a Twins organization that is very pitching-deep these days.

My feeling is that there's too little to distinguish the records of the Twins pitchers thus far to really know which of them has the best shot to develop into an All-Star or even a Hall-of-Famer, so in effect from the club's perspective, they all have the same value until one of them demonstrates otherwise. On the other hand, given that some of these pitchers have a higher perceived value to other franchises based on their age, draft position, etc., I think we could get a lot more back in trade by dangling, say, a Kevin Slowey than we could by dangling a Boof Bonser or a Nick Blackburn.

I think if the club can find a deal that will bring in an offensive player who will definitely improve the ballclub, they should do so. If that deal involves giving up a pitcher like a Kevin Slowey, I don't see that Slowey's 'potential' should dissuade them from making the deal.

All stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com and thebaseballcube.com.