Let's just say that Fausto Carmona's second start after a stint on the DL was a lot better than his first. Coming back off a poor outing against the Twins, Carmona threw much better, had better command, and threw a lot more first pitch strikes as he led the way for the Indians in a 9-4 win over the Tigers to split a four-game set at Progressive Field.
Carmona went 6.1 innings, allowing two earned runs on five hits. He walked one and struck out three. He threw 99 pitches, 63 strikes. Considering he lasted just 2.1 innings vs the Twins back on the 26th, allowing nine runs, Carmona's outing was a positive sign for a team that knows they simply are playing out the stretch looking foward to the 2009 season.
On offense Grady Sizemore came through in a 1-1 game with a three-run homer off of Tigers starter Justin VerLander in the 5th that made it a 4-1 Indians lead. The homer was a telling blow for a Tigers pitching staff that simply walked too many batters according to manager Jim Leyland. Six walks in the game showed the patience at the plate for the Indians, and that inning catcher Sal Fasano got hit by a pitch, then Asdrubal Cabrera walked on a 3-2 pitch to send Grady to the plate.
The offense continued to hit well in the 6th as Fasano hit a single that scored Shin-Soo Choo to make it 4-2, then Sizemore got plunked to bring in another run to make it a 5-2 game and give Carmona and the bullpen some breathing room. The Tigers scored two in the 7th off of Carmona to make it 5-4, but the offense again responded with key hits in the bottom of the inning, the biggest a Fasano double to give the team a lead of 9-4.
The defense continues to be an area of concern, as they again were sloppy with three errors, and manager Eric Wedge would not allow a lack of sleep from last nights marathon affair to be an excuse for it. Choo will for sure be in the dog house after forgetting his sunglasses at one point, causing him issues in the outfield.
Nevertheless, the team will take it, as they move to 47-60 on the season. They head on the road for a week now and start a series in Minnesota tomorrow night with Jeremy Sowers going against Nick Blackburn at 8:10pm. The Tigers drop to 55-53.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Tigers Too Much for Indians and Ginter in 8-5 Win
The Indians have had a tendecy to fall behind and fight back, only to then fall short. That was the storyline at Progressive Field on Tuesday evening, as the Tigers used an early 4-0 lead vs Matt Ginter and then iced the game with a key two-run homer off of Rafael Betancourt to top the Indians 8-5 in front of 30,625 who chowed down tons of $1 hot dogs.
Ginter showed why he's had career trouble in the Majors, as he had little command and the Tigers made him work, as he was only able to last 4 innings and threw 77 pitches. He allowed four earned runs on 8 hits, and unlike the night before when Paul Byrd was able to control his pitches inside, Ginter was nowhere near as consistent, and the Tigers buried him for it.
He allowed a solo homer to Miguel Cabrera in the 2nd to give Detroit a 1-0 lead, but then in the fourth was hit hard for three runs, the biggest of which was a shot by Edgar Renteria to deep left that scored two runs and put him on second to make it 3-0. The battle between Ginter and Renteria clearly went to the hitter, as he took the 3-2 pitch and made Ginter pay for trying to be too fine, driving the ball for the biggest hit of the game.
The Indians offense didn't go too quietly vs Tigers starter Armando Galarraga. David Dellucci, hitting in the two-hole, made it 4-1 in the bottom of the 4th with a double to right that scored Grady Sizemore. Gary Sheffield then made it 6-1 Detroit in the 5th with a two-run double off of Juan Rincon, who is showing why he was available in the middle of the season.
A Jhonny Peralta triple and Shin-Soo Choo double brought two more runs in for the Indians and made it 6-3. Again though, with the team trying to fight back, the bullpen blew any chance, as Betancourt allowed a two-run homer to Brandon Inge in the 8th to make it an 8-3 game. The Tribe closed out the scoring with a Ryan Garko double to score a run to make it 8-4, and then Sizemore scored in the 9th on a wild pitch to make it 8-5.
The loss throws the indians to 46-59, while the Tigers continue to keep hope alive in the Central at 52-52. Ginter suffers the loss to fall to 1-2, Galarraga improves to 9-4 with the win. The Indians will continue their series with the Tigers tonight. Cliff Lee, who's 14-and-2 with a 2.29 ERA, will start for the Indians. The Tigers will send out Nate Robertson, who's 6-and-8 with a 5.63 ERA. First pitch at Progressive Field is set for 7:05 p.m.
Ginter showed why he's had career trouble in the Majors, as he had little command and the Tigers made him work, as he was only able to last 4 innings and threw 77 pitches. He allowed four earned runs on 8 hits, and unlike the night before when Paul Byrd was able to control his pitches inside, Ginter was nowhere near as consistent, and the Tigers buried him for it.
He allowed a solo homer to Miguel Cabrera in the 2nd to give Detroit a 1-0 lead, but then in the fourth was hit hard for three runs, the biggest of which was a shot by Edgar Renteria to deep left that scored two runs and put him on second to make it 3-0. The battle between Ginter and Renteria clearly went to the hitter, as he took the 3-2 pitch and made Ginter pay for trying to be too fine, driving the ball for the biggest hit of the game.
The Indians offense didn't go too quietly vs Tigers starter Armando Galarraga. David Dellucci, hitting in the two-hole, made it 4-1 in the bottom of the 4th with a double to right that scored Grady Sizemore. Gary Sheffield then made it 6-1 Detroit in the 5th with a two-run double off of Juan Rincon, who is showing why he was available in the middle of the season.
A Jhonny Peralta triple and Shin-Soo Choo double brought two more runs in for the Indians and made it 6-3. Again though, with the team trying to fight back, the bullpen blew any chance, as Betancourt allowed a two-run homer to Brandon Inge in the 8th to make it an 8-3 game. The Tribe closed out the scoring with a Ryan Garko double to score a run to make it 8-4, and then Sizemore scored in the 9th on a wild pitch to make it 8-5.
The loss throws the indians to 46-59, while the Tigers continue to keep hope alive in the Central at 52-52. Ginter suffers the loss to fall to 1-2, Galarraga improves to 9-4 with the win. The Indians will continue their series with the Tigers tonight. Cliff Lee, who's 14-and-2 with a 2.29 ERA, will start for the Indians. The Tigers will send out Nate Robertson, who's 6-and-8 with a 5.63 ERA. First pitch at Progressive Field is set for 7:05 p.m.
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Sowers Perfect Five Innings Not Enough in Tribe's Latest 4-2 Loss
Even on a day when the teams starting pitcher took a perfect game into the 6th inning, the Indians were, as usual this season, looking up at another loss by the time the stands cleared at Progressive Field Sunday. A Justin Morneau double with two outs in the 9th inning off Rafael Perez was the difference, as the Twins escaped a great outing by Jeremy Sowers to top the Indians 4-2 in front of 31,562.
Sowers had his best stuff of the season, throwing to and retiring the first 15 batters the Twins sent up to the plate. His fastball was on, had great command, and was able to use both sides of the plate. Not until Craig Monroe hit a bloop double to start the 6th did Sowers allow a hit. From there a huge Nick Punto bunt single that Sowers and Andy Marte at third miscommunicated on opened the door as the Twins scored twice to go up 2-1.
The Indians scrapped a run in the 8th off of Twins relief pitcher Denys Reyes. Asdrubal Cabrera singled, went to third on a Grady Sizemore single, then scored on a sac to center by David Dellucci. It was the play by CF Denard Span, who crashed into the wall in the Tribe's win Friday night that was the play of the game though. It looked as if Dellucci's ball would get down, and if it would have, Sizemore would have easily scored and the Tribe would have been up 3-2. But Span made a huge catch, saving the game for the Twins.
Perez came in to start the 9th, and allowed a one-out double to Alexi Casilla that bounced into the seats in left. Then after getting Mike Redmond to K, Eric Wedge let Perez pitch to Morneau, citing his success against lefties. With a 3-1 count, Perez left a pitch up, and Morneau hammered it to left center, scoring the winning run. Delmon Young singled in an insurance run to make it 4-2.
The loss drops the Indians to 45-58 on the season. The Tigers come to Progressive Field for the first of four starting on Monday at 7:05pm. Paul Byrd, (4-10, 5.28) who may be the next Indian to get traded before the deadline, goes for the Tribe vs Kenny Rogers (8-6, 4.48).
Sowers had his best stuff of the season, throwing to and retiring the first 15 batters the Twins sent up to the plate. His fastball was on, had great command, and was able to use both sides of the plate. Not until Craig Monroe hit a bloop double to start the 6th did Sowers allow a hit. From there a huge Nick Punto bunt single that Sowers and Andy Marte at third miscommunicated on opened the door as the Twins scored twice to go up 2-1.
The Indians scrapped a run in the 8th off of Twins relief pitcher Denys Reyes. Asdrubal Cabrera singled, went to third on a Grady Sizemore single, then scored on a sac to center by David Dellucci. It was the play by CF Denard Span, who crashed into the wall in the Tribe's win Friday night that was the play of the game though. It looked as if Dellucci's ball would get down, and if it would have, Sizemore would have easily scored and the Tribe would have been up 3-2. But Span made a huge catch, saving the game for the Twins.
Perez came in to start the 9th, and allowed a one-out double to Alexi Casilla that bounced into the seats in left. Then after getting Mike Redmond to K, Eric Wedge let Perez pitch to Morneau, citing his success against lefties. With a 3-1 count, Perez left a pitch up, and Morneau hammered it to left center, scoring the winning run. Delmon Young singled in an insurance run to make it 4-2.
The loss drops the Indians to 45-58 on the season. The Tigers come to Progressive Field for the first of four starting on Monday at 7:05pm. Paul Byrd, (4-10, 5.28) who may be the next Indian to get traded before the deadline, goes for the Tribe vs Kenny Rogers (8-6, 4.48).
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Carmona Crushed in Return by Twins 11-4
When it comes to the return of pitcher Fausto Carmona, it will go down as a return he and the Indians will want to forget. On a day when the team made a bunch of roster moves, the biggest trading veteran locker room guy Casey Blake, Carmona was rocked hard by the Twins for nine runs in just over two plus innings in the Indians 11-4 loss at Progressive Field.
Carmona was up in the zone for most of the 69 pitches he was in there, and went just 2.1 innings, allowing nine runs on seven hits. He walked three, which all came in the first to get him in trouble, and struck out one. The Twins batted around in a six-run first, the big hit being a three-run homer by Brian Buscher to make it 6-0. After a 1-2-3 second, he ran into more trouble in the third, allowing a run scoring double to Mike Lamb, then a two-run single to Buscher to knock him out of the game.
Down 9-0, the Indians got a solo homer from Andy Marte in the 5th to make it 9-1, then a Jhonny Peralta single to left in the 6th scored two more to make it 9-3. The Twins made sure there would be no miracle comeback, as they piled on two runs in the 8th off of Jensen Lewis to make it 11-3. A Kelly Shoppach single in the 8th closed out the scoring to make it 11-4.
The Tribe used five pitchers, with Tom Mastny going 2.2 innings, allowing just two hits and a walk. Lewis went 2.1, allowing two runs, and Rafael Betancourt threw two outs and Edward Mujica also got two outs in relief. As far as the offense went, the team managed eight hits off of five pitchers, with Scott Baker going five innings for the Twins to get the win to improve to 7-3.
Just called up Andy Gonzalez did manage to get a hit in his first at-bat for the Tribe, a harmless single in the 9th off of Matt Guerrier. The loss puts the Tribe back at 12 games under .500 at 45-57. The Twins improve to 56-47, breaking their five-game losing streak.
Sunday in the finale of the three-game weekend set it will be Jeremy Sowers (1-5, 6.44) vs Nick Blackburn (7-6, 3.83) at 1:05pm.
Carmona was up in the zone for most of the 69 pitches he was in there, and went just 2.1 innings, allowing nine runs on seven hits. He walked three, which all came in the first to get him in trouble, and struck out one. The Twins batted around in a six-run first, the big hit being a three-run homer by Brian Buscher to make it 6-0. After a 1-2-3 second, he ran into more trouble in the third, allowing a run scoring double to Mike Lamb, then a two-run single to Buscher to knock him out of the game.
Down 9-0, the Indians got a solo homer from Andy Marte in the 5th to make it 9-1, then a Jhonny Peralta single to left in the 6th scored two more to make it 9-3. The Twins made sure there would be no miracle comeback, as they piled on two runs in the 8th off of Jensen Lewis to make it 11-3. A Kelly Shoppach single in the 8th closed out the scoring to make it 11-4.
The Tribe used five pitchers, with Tom Mastny going 2.2 innings, allowing just two hits and a walk. Lewis went 2.1, allowing two runs, and Rafael Betancourt threw two outs and Edward Mujica also got two outs in relief. As far as the offense went, the team managed eight hits off of five pitchers, with Scott Baker going five innings for the Twins to get the win to improve to 7-3.
Just called up Andy Gonzalez did manage to get a hit in his first at-bat for the Tribe, a harmless single in the 9th off of Matt Guerrier. The loss puts the Tribe back at 12 games under .500 at 45-57. The Twins improve to 56-47, breaking their five-game losing streak.
Sunday in the finale of the three-game weekend set it will be Jeremy Sowers (1-5, 6.44) vs Nick Blackburn (7-6, 3.83) at 1:05pm.
Friday, July 25, 2008
Lee Wins MLB Best 14th as Tribe Tops Twins 5-4
Home cooking is starting to taste good again to the Indians, who Friday night in the kickoff of Beach weekend (whatever) took advantage again of Twins pitcher Livan Hernandez in beating Minnesota 5-4. The Indians roughed up Hernandez back on June 12th, as they scored 7 runs against him on 12 hits in just three innings in a 12-2 win.
Tonight they jumped on him for four runs in the first inning to set the pace, also sending 8 men to the plate. Ben Francisco hit a sac fly with two on that scored Grady Sizemore from second when Carlos Gomez slammed against the wall and laid on the ground hurt. Shin-Soo Choo hit another sac fly to make it 2-0 that scored Jamey Carroll. Kelly Shoppach two batters later hit a double that scored Jhonny Peralta and Casey Blake to make it 4-0.
Cliff Lee was on again for the Indians, as the Cy Young candidate went 8 innings, throwing another gem. He allowed two runs on six hits, striking out 10. The Tribe MVP improves to 14-2 on the year, the first pitcher in the Majors to win 14 games this year. He allowed a single run in the 3rd on a Denard Span single, and another in the 6th on Joe Mauer double, but other than that was again solid.
The Indians offense also got a homer from Franklin Gutierrez in the 9th spot in the order which made it 5-1 in the second. They pounded out 12 hits on the night, with Blake, Peralta and Gutierrez all with more than one hit. Masa Kobayashi came in to take the final inning for Lee and quickly allowed a hit and a Justin Morneau homer to make it 5-4. Delmon Young then doubled and Eric Wedge moved to Rafael Perez.
Perez got Mike Redmond to lineout to first, then got Brendan Harris to ground out to the pitcher to get two quick outs. The threat was gone when Nick Punto grounded out to second on a great play by Asdrubal Cabrera to end the game.
The team, now 45-56, will look for two in a row over the Twins on Saturday night at 7:05 when it's the return of Fausto Carmona (4-2, 3.10) from the DL vs Scott Baker (6-3, 3.26).
Tonight they jumped on him for four runs in the first inning to set the pace, also sending 8 men to the plate. Ben Francisco hit a sac fly with two on that scored Grady Sizemore from second when Carlos Gomez slammed against the wall and laid on the ground hurt. Shin-Soo Choo hit another sac fly to make it 2-0 that scored Jamey Carroll. Kelly Shoppach two batters later hit a double that scored Jhonny Peralta and Casey Blake to make it 4-0.
Cliff Lee was on again for the Indians, as the Cy Young candidate went 8 innings, throwing another gem. He allowed two runs on six hits, striking out 10. The Tribe MVP improves to 14-2 on the year, the first pitcher in the Majors to win 14 games this year. He allowed a single run in the 3rd on a Denard Span single, and another in the 6th on Joe Mauer double, but other than that was again solid.
The Indians offense also got a homer from Franklin Gutierrez in the 9th spot in the order which made it 5-1 in the second. They pounded out 12 hits on the night, with Blake, Peralta and Gutierrez all with more than one hit. Masa Kobayashi came in to take the final inning for Lee and quickly allowed a hit and a Justin Morneau homer to make it 5-4. Delmon Young then doubled and Eric Wedge moved to Rafael Perez.
Perez got Mike Redmond to lineout to first, then got Brendan Harris to ground out to the pitcher to get two quick outs. The threat was gone when Nick Punto grounded out to second on a great play by Asdrubal Cabrera to end the game.
The team, now 45-56, will look for two in a row over the Twins on Saturday night at 7:05 when it's the return of Fausto Carmona (4-2, 3.10) from the DL vs Scott Baker (6-3, 3.26).
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Could the Royals Please Show Up
So as a persecuted Royals fan, should I just assume that the Royals only planned to play a 100 game schedule this year? From what I have seen, it does not look like they are interested in playing anymore. I cannot recall a more miserable series. The Royals looked lifeless and uninterested in the last three games. Sure, the Tigers are a better team than they have shown for much of the year, but this series has left a rotten taste in my mouth. After the rain delay on Tuesday night, which I did see pre and post, not a single Royal had any interest in still being there. I heard the post-game show opine that most likely Galaraga for the Tigers and Greinke for the Royals went home early. Which is fine but the problem is the rest of the Royals went home, if not physically, they did so mentally with Wednesday’s starting pitchers.
The last three games for the Royals have been nothing short of embarrassing. They have looked uninspired and uninterested. Half the time the lineup Hillman has been running out there leaves me with an overwhelming sense of, huh…. Other than Mike Aviles and David DeJesus, it looks like the Royals are still on the All-Star break.
The Royals have a difficult schedule the rest of the way and if the first few games of the second half are a harbinger of what is to come, it is going to be a very long rest of the baseball season. I know that the Royals are only 2-6 since the break, but to me it feels like they are 0-6. I am having trouble remembering the name of the closer for the Royals and, the two players that have received the most attention so for is Gobble “conveniently hurt” and Pena “swing and miss”. The highlight so far is a .150 hitter, average defensive shortstop coming into an 19-4 blowout and pitching a scoreless inning.
I am growing concerned that we are not going to see improvement from the team in the second half and what we in fact are going to see is a backslide. A season that looked promising until a 12 game losing streak is more and more looking like it could be a disaster. Outside of a couple of bullpen guys, Aviles, and David DeJesus, is anyone on this team getting better.
Look at the starting pitching; Meche is up and down, Greinke, Bannister, Hochevar, and Davies are getting worse. Hochevar was going to be up and down, but when you hang your hat on 1 outing against the worst offensive club in baseball, outside of our very own Kansas City Royals, you have trouble.
I do not know what the rest of this year holds for the Royals. But we have now entered year three of the Dayton Moore rule and right now, I am about as least optimistic as I have been in awhile. There is still time for the Royals to make some progress this year, but they are going to have to play a little harder, a little better, and with more heart than I have since the break. I am willing to give them a pass for this week. The Rays are coming into town on Thursday, and the Royals team I saw this week versus the Tigers better not show up at the ballpark. If they do, I may start to sound the panic alarm.
The last three games for the Royals have been nothing short of embarrassing. They have looked uninspired and uninterested. Half the time the lineup Hillman has been running out there leaves me with an overwhelming sense of, huh…. Other than Mike Aviles and David DeJesus, it looks like the Royals are still on the All-Star break.
The Royals have a difficult schedule the rest of the way and if the first few games of the second half are a harbinger of what is to come, it is going to be a very long rest of the baseball season. I know that the Royals are only 2-6 since the break, but to me it feels like they are 0-6. I am having trouble remembering the name of the closer for the Royals and, the two players that have received the most attention so for is Gobble “conveniently hurt” and Pena “swing and miss”. The highlight so far is a .150 hitter, average defensive shortstop coming into an 19-4 blowout and pitching a scoreless inning.
I am growing concerned that we are not going to see improvement from the team in the second half and what we in fact are going to see is a backslide. A season that looked promising until a 12 game losing streak is more and more looking like it could be a disaster. Outside of a couple of bullpen guys, Aviles, and David DeJesus, is anyone on this team getting better.
Look at the starting pitching; Meche is up and down, Greinke, Bannister, Hochevar, and Davies are getting worse. Hochevar was going to be up and down, but when you hang your hat on 1 outing against the worst offensive club in baseball, outside of our very own Kansas City Royals, you have trouble.
I do not know what the rest of this year holds for the Royals. But we have now entered year three of the Dayton Moore rule and right now, I am about as least optimistic as I have been in awhile. There is still time for the Royals to make some progress this year, but they are going to have to play a little harder, a little better, and with more heart than I have since the break. I am willing to give them a pass for this week. The Rays are coming into town on Thursday, and the Royals team I saw this week versus the Tigers better not show up at the ballpark. If they do, I may start to sound the panic alarm.
Tiger's Roll Through the Royals, Great Chance Now Lies Ahead.
The best record Since June 9th, The Tiger's continue to roll.
The three game series against the Tiger killing Royals, proved to only help out the Tiger's long hike back up the Central Standings. The home stand for the Royals, proved to be a thing hopefully they can easily forget, in giving 33 runs in 3 losing efforts. On the other hand, the Tiger's will use this series, to fuel the confidence meter has they come into a huge series against the divison leading White Sox.
The three game homestand, which is the only home games the Tig's will play basically for the next month, are perhaps the most important games of the season, thus far. The divison leading White Sox, which have slipped of late, find them selves 5 games above Detroit, but this big series can have that slashed in half. Perhaps coming at a perfect time, the Twins slump seems to be evident, as they were swept by the resurgent Yankees.
The great bats which we all hoped for, are finnally showing light, but two names seem to jump out as of late. One of which, not even the greatest analysts could guess that he would show since great play this early.
First, Miguel Cabrera, the offseason aqusistion that obviosuly did not live up to the hype early.
The great play, has ignited the offense, as he in the four spot, packs a powerful punch, espically as of late.
In Cabby's last 10 games, he is posting a .302 batting average, with 15 runs batted in.
Most suprising, only 1 homerun. This truly means that Cabby has learned that he does not need a homerun swing, to win the game. Learning his spot to for the better of the team, was a true problem at the beginning of the season.
The greatest offensive suprise of the season, has been the play of Rookie Matt Joyce. The young outfield talent has great speed, growing maturity, and the power speaks for itself.
In Matt's last 10 games, he is posting a .364 batting average, with 10 RBI's and 3 Homeruns.
What more can you ask from such a player, perhaps the best numbers for a Mud Hen call up, since Curtis Granderson.
The Tiger's have been rolling, and hopefully can continue to roll as the Chi Sox try to extend their lead. A thing in which the Tig's can't afford to do.
The three game series against the Tiger killing Royals, proved to only help out the Tiger's long hike back up the Central Standings. The home stand for the Royals, proved to be a thing hopefully they can easily forget, in giving 33 runs in 3 losing efforts. On the other hand, the Tiger's will use this series, to fuel the confidence meter has they come into a huge series against the divison leading White Sox.
The three game homestand, which is the only home games the Tig's will play basically for the next month, are perhaps the most important games of the season, thus far. The divison leading White Sox, which have slipped of late, find them selves 5 games above Detroit, but this big series can have that slashed in half. Perhaps coming at a perfect time, the Twins slump seems to be evident, as they were swept by the resurgent Yankees.
The great bats which we all hoped for, are finnally showing light, but two names seem to jump out as of late. One of which, not even the greatest analysts could guess that he would show since great play this early.
First, Miguel Cabrera, the offseason aqusistion that obviosuly did not live up to the hype early.
The great play, has ignited the offense, as he in the four spot, packs a powerful punch, espically as of late.
In Cabby's last 10 games, he is posting a .302 batting average, with 15 runs batted in.
Most suprising, only 1 homerun. This truly means that Cabby has learned that he does not need a homerun swing, to win the game. Learning his spot to for the better of the team, was a true problem at the beginning of the season.
The greatest offensive suprise of the season, has been the play of Rookie Matt Joyce. The young outfield talent has great speed, growing maturity, and the power speaks for itself.
In Matt's last 10 games, he is posting a .364 batting average, with 10 RBI's and 3 Homeruns.
What more can you ask from such a player, perhaps the best numbers for a Mud Hen call up, since Curtis Granderson.
The Tiger's have been rolling, and hopefully can continue to roll as the Chi Sox try to extend their lead. A thing in which the Tig's can't afford to do.
We've Seen This Before -- Jason Kubel
The Twins blogosphere has been comparing the careers of Jason Kubel and Jacque Jones, and there is, to be fair, a decent amount of similarity between them. Both came up through the minors as left-handed hitting outfielders, both have posted poor numbers against left-handed pitching. Jason Kubel's list of 'comparable players' (according to baseball-reference.com) includes Jeffrey Hammonds (2nd) and Felipe Alou (3rd), both of whom are also on Jones's comp list at age 25 (5th and 1st, respectively).
Another thing they have in common is that, as 'young' players, they were protected by their managers from batting much against left-handed pitching.
This will come as a shock to some Twins bloggers who remember Jones struggling mightily against lefties. However, comparing the first three full seasons of each man's career shows a very different story:
Kubel's had not just a far higher percentage of plate appearances against lefties in his first three seasons than Jones did, but actually had more plate appearances period against lefties than Jones did. Jones played much more of a utility-type role in his early seasons -- he played about as frequently in center as in left until the Matt Lawton trade at the deadline in 2001.
So what happened to Jones to get him so many more PAs against lefties after 2001? Simple -- he became the regular, first in left field following the departure of Lawton, then in right after the acquisition of Shannon Stewart in mid-2003. Ron Gardenhire inherited from his predecessor, Tom Kelly, a reverence for the role of major-league starter, and Jones's average number of PAs against lefties jumped to over 160 per season -- or within a handful games of the total number of PAs he'd had against lefties in his first three seasons combined -- for the rest of his Twins career.
I'd suspect that Kubel would get more at-bats against lefties if he inherited the mantle of 'big-league regular', but there are two major factors and one unknown one standing in Kubel's way:
1. The Twins already have guys they consider 'regulars' in the two corner outfield spots that Kubel would have to inherit, both of whom are considered long-term players: Delmon Young in left and Michael Cuddyer in right.
2. The Twins traditionally have not gone with a full-time designated hitter during the Kelly/Gardenhire era, preferring to use the role to give players a rest while keeping them in the lineup (Kirby Puckett averaged about eight games a year as a DH during his career, and generally played more there as he got older, while Joe Mauer has averaged about 10 games per year at DH during his career, including his injury-shortened rookie year). The last time a Twin started as many as 81 games at DH in a single season was in 2002 (David Ortiz), and they've only had three players since 1987 who've started 100 or more games at DH in a single season (Paul Molitor in 1996-1998, Dave Winfield in 1993, and Chili Davis in 1991-1992), all of whom were established veteran hitters prior to their arrival in Minnesota.
The unknown factor is Kubel's catastrophic knee injury suffered in the Arizona Fall League in 2004 which kept him completely out of the majors in 2005; post-injury, Kubel has started nearly as many games at DH as he's started in the field, and it seems presumed that his career, whatever remains of it, will be as a designated hitter. If that turns out to be true, I'd be surprised if he became a 'regular' DH with the Twins, for just those reasons described above.
Another thing they have in common is that, as 'young' players, they were protected by their managers from batting much against left-handed pitching.
This will come as a shock to some Twins bloggers who remember Jones struggling mightily against lefties. However, comparing the first three full seasons of each man's career shows a very different story:
PA vs LHP PA vs RHP
Jones
1999 39 308
2000 79 473
2001 59 461
total 177 1242
Kubel
2006 39 196
2007 84 382
2008 61 259
total 184 837
Kubel's had not just a far higher percentage of plate appearances against lefties in his first three seasons than Jones did, but actually had more plate appearances period against lefties than Jones did. Jones played much more of a utility-type role in his early seasons -- he played about as frequently in center as in left until the Matt Lawton trade at the deadline in 2001.
So what happened to Jones to get him so many more PAs against lefties after 2001? Simple -- he became the regular, first in left field following the departure of Lawton, then in right after the acquisition of Shannon Stewart in mid-2003. Ron Gardenhire inherited from his predecessor, Tom Kelly, a reverence for the role of major-league starter, and Jones's average number of PAs against lefties jumped to over 160 per season -- or within a handful games of the total number of PAs he'd had against lefties in his first three seasons combined -- for the rest of his Twins career.
I'd suspect that Kubel would get more at-bats against lefties if he inherited the mantle of 'big-league regular', but there are two major factors and one unknown one standing in Kubel's way:
1. The Twins already have guys they consider 'regulars' in the two corner outfield spots that Kubel would have to inherit, both of whom are considered long-term players: Delmon Young in left and Michael Cuddyer in right.
2. The Twins traditionally have not gone with a full-time designated hitter during the Kelly/Gardenhire era, preferring to use the role to give players a rest while keeping them in the lineup (Kirby Puckett averaged about eight games a year as a DH during his career, and generally played more there as he got older, while Joe Mauer has averaged about 10 games per year at DH during his career, including his injury-shortened rookie year). The last time a Twin started as many as 81 games at DH in a single season was in 2002 (David Ortiz), and they've only had three players since 1987 who've started 100 or more games at DH in a single season (Paul Molitor in 1996-1998, Dave Winfield in 1993, and Chili Davis in 1991-1992), all of whom were established veteran hitters prior to their arrival in Minnesota.
The unknown factor is Kubel's catastrophic knee injury suffered in the Arizona Fall League in 2004 which kept him completely out of the majors in 2005; post-injury, Kubel has started nearly as many games at DH as he's started in the field, and it seems presumed that his career, whatever remains of it, will be as a designated hitter. If that turns out to be true, I'd be surprised if he became a 'regular' DH with the Twins, for just those reasons described above.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Tribe Continues Winning Ways in 5-2 Win Over Angels
Paul Byrd played with fire for much of the night, but in the end was good enough as the Indians continued their hot streak with a 5-2 win over the Angels in Anaheim Monday night. The Tribe is as hot as at any point in this letdown of a 2008 season, as they have now won 7 of their last 8 after they had dropped 10 in a row. Byrd allowed 9 hits, but only one run in the 5.1 innings pitched. The former Angles pitcher improved to 4-10 on the season.
The offense was paced by the long ball, as three Indians homers paced the win. Casey Blake hit his 11th of the year, a two-run shot, and Jhonny Peralta hit his 17th in the 8th inning, a solo shot, while Andy Marte went 2-for-4 with his 2nd homer, a solo shot in the 4th. Blake's two-run blast in the 5th off losing pitcher Ervin Santana (11-4) made it 4-1 and it was all the Tribe would need.
The bullpen did a nice job for Byrd, as Rafael Perez, who's had a tough 2008, threw 2.2 innings, allowing one run on one hit, a solo homer to Howie Kendrick in the 8th that made it 5-2. Masa Kobayashi threw a 1-2-3 ninth to earn his 6th save, striking out the side to shut the door and put any doubt out of the Angels mind about extending their 5-game winning streak.
The win puts the Indians one little percentage point behind the Royals for 4th place in the AL Central at 44-54. They are still 11 games back of the White Sox in the Central, who lead the division by only .5 over the Twins. The Indians will continue their series with the Angels tonight. Matt Ginter, who's 1-and-0 with a 0.00 ERA, will start for the Indians. Jered Weaver, who's 8-and-8 with a 4.03 ERA, will start for the Angels. First pitch at Angel Stadium is at 10:05 p.m.
The offense was paced by the long ball, as three Indians homers paced the win. Casey Blake hit his 11th of the year, a two-run shot, and Jhonny Peralta hit his 17th in the 8th inning, a solo shot, while Andy Marte went 2-for-4 with his 2nd homer, a solo shot in the 4th. Blake's two-run blast in the 5th off losing pitcher Ervin Santana (11-4) made it 4-1 and it was all the Tribe would need.
The bullpen did a nice job for Byrd, as Rafael Perez, who's had a tough 2008, threw 2.2 innings, allowing one run on one hit, a solo homer to Howie Kendrick in the 8th that made it 5-2. Masa Kobayashi threw a 1-2-3 ninth to earn his 6th save, striking out the side to shut the door and put any doubt out of the Angels mind about extending their 5-game winning streak.
The win puts the Indians one little percentage point behind the Royals for 4th place in the AL Central at 44-54. They are still 11 games back of the White Sox in the Central, who lead the division by only .5 over the Twins. The Indians will continue their series with the Angels tonight. Matt Ginter, who's 1-and-0 with a 0.00 ERA, will start for the Indians. Jered Weaver, who's 8-and-8 with a 4.03 ERA, will start for the Angels. First pitch at Angel Stadium is at 10:05 p.m.
When Did MLB Go to a 23-Man Roster, or is it Just the Kansas City Royals?
Where should we begin after my somewhat extended hiatus. The best place to start is the Royals starting pitching. I am not ready to sound the alarm and scream panic, (not yet anyway). It is safe to assume that any unfortunate Royals fan that has happened to catch the first four starts of the Royals’ second-half knows how bad it has been. Zack Greinke, again was slaughtered by the Chicago White Sox, an all-to-familiar occurrence when Zack faces the sox from the North side of Chicago. That was the first horror awaiting the Royals as they came off the All-Star break. Then there is Brian Bannister.
Brian Bannister looks lost out on the mound. This is what happens when a pitcher has average to below-average stuff. If he is not right on, he is going to get pounded. Bannister looks like he is lost once he gets into trouble. It is not even so much the frequency of hits that teams are getting against him; the bigger concern is how once batters reach they score. Gil Meche has been the loan bright spot for the Royals since the return from the break. He had a solid outing against a team that was just feasting on the Royals. Then there is (let’s hope) the finale, Luke Hochevar on Monday night. He wobbled, he stumbled and then he flat fell down. He has not shown the ability to get out of a jam, once he gets into it. There was a bobble by Alex Gordon on a routine double-play and then there was a rocket (bonehead) throw from right fielder Jose Guillen, which Hochevar did not properly backup. Here is where pitchers make their money. His team is in a tough spot, two runners on and two runs in. Luke needs to buckle down, get out of the inning and give his team a chance to come back and score in the bottom of the inning. This did not happen, instead, Hochevar gave up a three-run homerun and just like that it was five nothing. By the time Hochevar left, the Tigers (whom the Royals had won six straight from mind you) would have seven runs.
You can then add two runs off of Tejada and then Jimmy (demote me or cut me) Gobble came into the game. Have any of you seen the original Bad News Bears not the sub-par remake of a couple years ago, but the one with Walter Matthau? There is a fat un-athletic kid on the team and in the championship game; Matthau has him get hit by the pitch each time he comes up. Did anyone else feel like they were watching that movie again with Gobble on the mound? Take one for the team, he did, 10, let me repeat that, 10 runs later the Royals were down 19 to nothing. Gobble’s ERA jumped to an unbelievable (not so much that he has been that bad, but simply because how can he still be on the team) 11.31. If Jimmy Gobble is still on the roster by the time the Royals open the gates on Tuesday, all fans should boycott the team. Can someone please explain to me what he is doing on this team? I feel bad for Gobble, he seems like a great guy and he had a solid season last year as the lefty specialist. But this is not the Bad News Bears, you cut the kid that takes one for the team in MLB.
While I am on this subject, as far as I am concerned Trey Hillman and Bob McClure should be ashamed of themselves. To put a player through that is an embarrassment. I am not sure how many pitches he threw, but when someone is getting hit around like Gobble was you take him out. I think I am more upset with McClure than I am with Hillman. McClure should have demanded that Hillman take Gobble out. It was a disgusting display. I don’t know, maybe people smarter than me will disagree and say he did the exact right thing, but I will vehemently disagree. I understand why you bring in Gobble to start the eighth. But I will never understand why you wait for Gobble to give up 10 runs before you bring in Nunez. He is just off the DL, after a long stay. What a perfect chance for him to come in with no stress and get an inning under his belt. Instead, we got to see batting practice served up by Jimmy Gobble. To me the whole mess was unprofessional and embarrassing even more than the final score.
A quick review of the start of the second half: A starting staff that thinks the All-Star break is this week, sans Gil Meche, a prized first round draft pick getting pinch hit for due to his lack of production, another first round draft pick that more and more is looking like a four-A player, who has no position, no skills, and no baseball instincts. Is it just me or does Butler’s bat look slow? Maybe if he lost 20 pounds he would swing a little faster. And the coup-de-tat a 19-4 loss that featured a pitcher being left out on the mound to give up 10 runs, and a player (a shortstop) that should not be on a roster mopping up in the 9th. I will admit that it looks the Royals found a good role for Pena. Because the way the second half has started, they may need him to pitch the 9th inning of several more, embarrassing double-digit losses before this season is over….
Or, the Royals could demand better from Butler and Teahen, dump Pena, demote Gobble, bring in two new players and field a legitimate 25 man roster. (Can anyone tell me why, Pena plays and German does not, German is a better batter, an ok second basemen, and is much more versatile than Pena, I will say it again “what does the Pena family have on the Royals organization”?) I am not going to hold my breath though, my bet is Gobble will be gone and Pena will be here until I die, so if I were you and I certainly know I will, look for Pena in the center of a diamond and on the mound, coming soon to an “ahem” MLB game near you!
Brian Bannister looks lost out on the mound. This is what happens when a pitcher has average to below-average stuff. If he is not right on, he is going to get pounded. Bannister looks like he is lost once he gets into trouble. It is not even so much the frequency of hits that teams are getting against him; the bigger concern is how once batters reach they score. Gil Meche has been the loan bright spot for the Royals since the return from the break. He had a solid outing against a team that was just feasting on the Royals. Then there is (let’s hope) the finale, Luke Hochevar on Monday night. He wobbled, he stumbled and then he flat fell down. He has not shown the ability to get out of a jam, once he gets into it. There was a bobble by Alex Gordon on a routine double-play and then there was a rocket (bonehead) throw from right fielder Jose Guillen, which Hochevar did not properly backup. Here is where pitchers make their money. His team is in a tough spot, two runners on and two runs in. Luke needs to buckle down, get out of the inning and give his team a chance to come back and score in the bottom of the inning. This did not happen, instead, Hochevar gave up a three-run homerun and just like that it was five nothing. By the time Hochevar left, the Tigers (whom the Royals had won six straight from mind you) would have seven runs.
You can then add two runs off of Tejada and then Jimmy (demote me or cut me) Gobble came into the game. Have any of you seen the original Bad News Bears not the sub-par remake of a couple years ago, but the one with Walter Matthau? There is a fat un-athletic kid on the team and in the championship game; Matthau has him get hit by the pitch each time he comes up. Did anyone else feel like they were watching that movie again with Gobble on the mound? Take one for the team, he did, 10, let me repeat that, 10 runs later the Royals were down 19 to nothing. Gobble’s ERA jumped to an unbelievable (not so much that he has been that bad, but simply because how can he still be on the team) 11.31. If Jimmy Gobble is still on the roster by the time the Royals open the gates on Tuesday, all fans should boycott the team. Can someone please explain to me what he is doing on this team? I feel bad for Gobble, he seems like a great guy and he had a solid season last year as the lefty specialist. But this is not the Bad News Bears, you cut the kid that takes one for the team in MLB.
While I am on this subject, as far as I am concerned Trey Hillman and Bob McClure should be ashamed of themselves. To put a player through that is an embarrassment. I am not sure how many pitches he threw, but when someone is getting hit around like Gobble was you take him out. I think I am more upset with McClure than I am with Hillman. McClure should have demanded that Hillman take Gobble out. It was a disgusting display. I don’t know, maybe people smarter than me will disagree and say he did the exact right thing, but I will vehemently disagree. I understand why you bring in Gobble to start the eighth. But I will never understand why you wait for Gobble to give up 10 runs before you bring in Nunez. He is just off the DL, after a long stay. What a perfect chance for him to come in with no stress and get an inning under his belt. Instead, we got to see batting practice served up by Jimmy Gobble. To me the whole mess was unprofessional and embarrassing even more than the final score.
A quick review of the start of the second half: A starting staff that thinks the All-Star break is this week, sans Gil Meche, a prized first round draft pick getting pinch hit for due to his lack of production, another first round draft pick that more and more is looking like a four-A player, who has no position, no skills, and no baseball instincts. Is it just me or does Butler’s bat look slow? Maybe if he lost 20 pounds he would swing a little faster. And the coup-de-tat a 19-4 loss that featured a pitcher being left out on the mound to give up 10 runs, and a player (a shortstop) that should not be on a roster mopping up in the 9th. I will admit that it looks the Royals found a good role for Pena. Because the way the second half has started, they may need him to pitch the 9th inning of several more, embarrassing double-digit losses before this season is over….
Or, the Royals could demand better from Butler and Teahen, dump Pena, demote Gobble, bring in two new players and field a legitimate 25 man roster. (Can anyone tell me why, Pena plays and German does not, German is a better batter, an ok second basemen, and is much more versatile than Pena, I will say it again “what does the Pena family have on the Royals organization”?) I am not going to hold my breath though, my bet is Gobble will be gone and Pena will be here until I die, so if I were you and I certainly know I will, look for Pena in the center of a diamond and on the mound, coming soon to an “ahem” MLB game near you!
Monday, July 21, 2008
What If...Indians Continue Hot Streak vs Awful Mariners
Indians manager Eric Wedge has preached throughout this tough season that his team was not going to give in, no matter what the circumstances. That theory was again shown over the weekend as the team returned to action to take two-of-three from the Mariners in a series between two teams going nowhere fast. They dropped the first game, but recovered nicely to win the final two games of the series to take the series and up their streak to winning six of their last seven.
Sunday it was All-Star starter Cliff Lee's turn to take the hill, and while it for sure was not one of his best outings of the season, the lefty got the job done, allowing 11 hits, but going the distance as the team topped Seattle 6-2. The big hit of the day was a Kelly Shoppach three-run homer that made a 1-1 game a 4-1 Indians lead. That was all Lee would need to up his record to 13-2.
It's amazing to think that the Indians, a team that is 11 games under .500, has a pitcher on staff that is 11 games over .500. That's the case with Lee, who by far is the teams MVP this season. He threw strikes to 16 of his first 20 batters, and 41 of his first 50 pitches were strikes, showing how good his command was. Four of the Mariners 11 hits were infield hits, and only one batter all day saw ball three.
The Indians will now move to Anaheim, where they may find a lot more competition than the Mariners. Anaheim has the best record in the Majors at 60-38, a far cry from the awful Mariners who after yesterday are 38-60. Nevertheless, the team can hang its head high as they are playing some of the best ball we've seen all season, problem is it's very likely too little, too late.
Sunday it was All-Star starter Cliff Lee's turn to take the hill, and while it for sure was not one of his best outings of the season, the lefty got the job done, allowing 11 hits, but going the distance as the team topped Seattle 6-2. The big hit of the day was a Kelly Shoppach three-run homer that made a 1-1 game a 4-1 Indians lead. That was all Lee would need to up his record to 13-2.
It's amazing to think that the Indians, a team that is 11 games under .500, has a pitcher on staff that is 11 games over .500. That's the case with Lee, who by far is the teams MVP this season. He threw strikes to 16 of his first 20 batters, and 41 of his first 50 pitches were strikes, showing how good his command was. Four of the Mariners 11 hits were infield hits, and only one batter all day saw ball three.
The Indians will now move to Anaheim, where they may find a lot more competition than the Mariners. Anaheim has the best record in the Majors at 60-38, a far cry from the awful Mariners who after yesterday are 38-60. Nevertheless, the team can hang its head high as they are playing some of the best ball we've seen all season, problem is it's very likely too little, too late.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Morneau Wins Derby, All-Star Game, Is Ignored
The All-Star break was fairly eventful for Minnesota Twins first-baseman Justin Morneau. On Monday, he won the Home Run Derby despite going up against a guy who set a new record for most homers in a single round of the Derby. Better writers than I have already commented about how Morneau's win is emblematic of the Twins philosophy, in that it doesn't matter whether or not you 'dominate', but when you make your push, as well as pointing out the odd conundrum that, despite America supposedly being a land that celebrates 'winners', Morneau was overshadowed by a guy who did heroin and then stopped, set a record, and yet still lost the contest in which he was participating.
Then Morneau, who didn't start the All-Star game, entered in the top of the 6th with the A.L. trailing 2-0. He doubled in his first at-bat, then scored on J.D. Drew's homer to tie the game at 2. Though he grounded out to the pitcher in the bottom of the 8th with the go-ahead run at 2nd, he made up for it in the 15th by hitting a leadoff single and eventually scoring the game-winning run on Michael Young's sacrifice fly with the bases loaded. (Of course, my favorite Morneau moment of the game was in the 12th, when he was intentionally walked with one out and a runner at 3rd so that Aaron Cook could pitch to Ian Kinsler -- yes, Morneau was walked so the N.L. could pitch to the A.L.'s batting average leader. Marvelous!)
Note that both of Morneau's hits were significant. Let's imagine instead that Morneau started the game and was replaced by Carlos Quentin, who went 0-4. In that case:
- The 7th inning ends, not on a 2-run game-tying homer, but on Navarro's strikeout. Drew then leads off the next inning, not against Volquez, but against Wilson. Even if he still hits a homer, it's only 2-1 and it's possible the game doesn't get to extra innings.
- If the game somehow still gets to extra innings, the 15th inning ends, not with a game-winning sac fly for the second out, but with a fly out to right to end the inning with two on, and the game continues with J.D. Drew potentially entering the game in the 17th as a 'disaster pitcher'.
For his effort -- 2 for 4 with a double, a walk, and two of the A.L.'s four runs scored, what's Morneau's reward? To see Drew handed the MVP for a game-tying homer hit eight full innings before the game ended, and to be described by Salon's King Kaufman (still one of my favorite baseball writers) as "slow-footed Minnesota first baseman Justin Morneau" who "tagged and rumbled down the line, beating an anemic two-bounce throw".
I'll forgive you, King.
Interestingly enough, Morneau is really growing on me as a Twins player. When he first came up in 2003, Doug Mientkiewicz had an OBP of .393 and was playing first base as well as anybody in the league, while Morneau hit a highly unimpressive .226/664 in limited play as a 22-year old. But in 2004, with the Twins in the thick of a pennant race and Mientkiewicz slumping, the blogosphere seemed to latch onto the big Canadian, who hit .271/876 with 19 homers in about a half-season's play and was lauded the next big thing, even being christened by some bloggers as 'Lil Harmon'. Mientkiewicz was traded to Boston at the deadline, and Morneau was drooled over as being a perennial 40 HR guy...which he hasn't even come all that close to. Morneau's career high in homers is 34 in his MVP season (2006); he hit 31 homers last year, and would have to go on a serious tear in the second half to even reach 30 this year, since he's standing at 14 after 95 games.
So why am I liking Morneau more these days? He's growing into what might be considered a prototypical Twins player, again highlighted by his Derby performance -- it's not that he crushes you, but he does what he needs to do to beat you.
For starters, his defense has improved since he entered the league full-time. In 2004, Morneau played just a half-season, but the defensive difference between him and Mientkiewicz was stark: among AL first-basemen with at least 250 defensive innings, Mientkiewicz had the highest Revised Zone Rating, while Morneau was sixth from the bottom, close to noted defensive butchers Mike Sweeney and Howie Clark. Even as late as 2006, Morneau was dead last in RZR among first baseman qualified for the batting title. But by 2007, Morneau had improved to middle-of-the-pack, and has stayed there ever since, his glove even being worth 1.0 fielding Win Shares thus far in 2008. He'll probably never be a great defensive first-baseman, but he's worked his way up from being a liability, and that deserves credit.
Also, Morneau is an excellent baserunner, Kaufman's description of him as 'slow-footed' notwithstanding. To see why, allow me to throw some 2008 stats at you:
We mentioned in a previous post that Joe Mauer had just 37 RBI hitting in front of Carlos Gomez, while Morneau had 65 hitting in front of Mauer, and that difference was due mainly to Gomez's inability to reach base consistently. Interestingly enough, heading into the break, Mauer was also leading the team with 58 runs scored, which you'd expect, since he's got the team's best on-base percentage and is hitting right in front of the heart of the order.
Justin Morneau has 55 runs scored, second on the team. Yes, Morneau has more runs scored than Carlos Gomez (who has 50). Morneau also has a great on-base percentage, though it's not as good as Mauer's (Mauer's OBP = .418, Morneau's OBP = .391) But getting on base is just half of the equation; you also have to be able to score on someone's hit or out.
Mauer, who's hit 3rd nearly all year, is hitting ahead of a batting order slot that's tallied a .321/895 hitting line. Morneau, who's hit 4th in every game he's played this year, is hitting ahead of a batting order slot that's tallied a .244/682 batting line. Mauer's been hitting ahead of Morneau all year, while Morneau has effectively been hitting ahead of Ryan Garko. And while the 5-spot for the Twins hasn't been very impressive, it's not significantly worse than the Twins' six and seven slots (.251/734 and .268/700 respectively). It helps that Morneau's been on base 161 times this year, third in the AL, but Mauer's been on base 150 times and is hitting ahead of a guy with about an extra 200 points of OPS.
The difference isn't speed -- Morneau's not as lumbering as you might think, but he's no Carlos Gomez -- but intelligence. Watching Morneau, you see how he recognizes situations where he can take an extra base (such as the base he grabbed on defensive indifference after being intentionally walked in the All-Star Game).
The guy works hard, he's got smarts, and he can smack 25-35 homers a year. He's still overrated in some circles, but he's becoming one of my favorite Twins precisely because so many people seem to miss the little things he does that don't dazzle, but still win games.
Then Morneau, who didn't start the All-Star game, entered in the top of the 6th with the A.L. trailing 2-0. He doubled in his first at-bat, then scored on J.D. Drew's homer to tie the game at 2. Though he grounded out to the pitcher in the bottom of the 8th with the go-ahead run at 2nd, he made up for it in the 15th by hitting a leadoff single and eventually scoring the game-winning run on Michael Young's sacrifice fly with the bases loaded. (Of course, my favorite Morneau moment of the game was in the 12th, when he was intentionally walked with one out and a runner at 3rd so that Aaron Cook could pitch to Ian Kinsler -- yes, Morneau was walked so the N.L. could pitch to the A.L.'s batting average leader. Marvelous!)
Note that both of Morneau's hits were significant. Let's imagine instead that Morneau started the game and was replaced by Carlos Quentin, who went 0-4. In that case:
- The 7th inning ends, not on a 2-run game-tying homer, but on Navarro's strikeout. Drew then leads off the next inning, not against Volquez, but against Wilson. Even if he still hits a homer, it's only 2-1 and it's possible the game doesn't get to extra innings.
- If the game somehow still gets to extra innings, the 15th inning ends, not with a game-winning sac fly for the second out, but with a fly out to right to end the inning with two on, and the game continues with J.D. Drew potentially entering the game in the 17th as a 'disaster pitcher'.
For his effort -- 2 for 4 with a double, a walk, and two of the A.L.'s four runs scored, what's Morneau's reward? To see Drew handed the MVP for a game-tying homer hit eight full innings before the game ended, and to be described by Salon's King Kaufman (still one of my favorite baseball writers) as "slow-footed Minnesota first baseman Justin Morneau" who "tagged and rumbled down the line, beating an anemic two-bounce throw".
I'll forgive you, King.
Interestingly enough, Morneau is really growing on me as a Twins player. When he first came up in 2003, Doug Mientkiewicz had an OBP of .393 and was playing first base as well as anybody in the league, while Morneau hit a highly unimpressive .226/664 in limited play as a 22-year old. But in 2004, with the Twins in the thick of a pennant race and Mientkiewicz slumping, the blogosphere seemed to latch onto the big Canadian, who hit .271/876 with 19 homers in about a half-season's play and was lauded the next big thing, even being christened by some bloggers as 'Lil Harmon'. Mientkiewicz was traded to Boston at the deadline, and Morneau was drooled over as being a perennial 40 HR guy...which he hasn't even come all that close to. Morneau's career high in homers is 34 in his MVP season (2006); he hit 31 homers last year, and would have to go on a serious tear in the second half to even reach 30 this year, since he's standing at 14 after 95 games.
So why am I liking Morneau more these days? He's growing into what might be considered a prototypical Twins player, again highlighted by his Derby performance -- it's not that he crushes you, but he does what he needs to do to beat you.
For starters, his defense has improved since he entered the league full-time. In 2004, Morneau played just a half-season, but the defensive difference between him and Mientkiewicz was stark: among AL first-basemen with at least 250 defensive innings, Mientkiewicz had the highest Revised Zone Rating, while Morneau was sixth from the bottom, close to noted defensive butchers Mike Sweeney and Howie Clark. Even as late as 2006, Morneau was dead last in RZR among first baseman qualified for the batting title. But by 2007, Morneau had improved to middle-of-the-pack, and has stayed there ever since, his glove even being worth 1.0 fielding Win Shares thus far in 2008. He'll probably never be a great defensive first-baseman, but he's worked his way up from being a liability, and that deserves credit.
Also, Morneau is an excellent baserunner, Kaufman's description of him as 'slow-footed' notwithstanding. To see why, allow me to throw some 2008 stats at you:
We mentioned in a previous post that Joe Mauer had just 37 RBI hitting in front of Carlos Gomez, while Morneau had 65 hitting in front of Mauer, and that difference was due mainly to Gomez's inability to reach base consistently. Interestingly enough, heading into the break, Mauer was also leading the team with 58 runs scored, which you'd expect, since he's got the team's best on-base percentage and is hitting right in front of the heart of the order.
Justin Morneau has 55 runs scored, second on the team. Yes, Morneau has more runs scored than Carlos Gomez (who has 50). Morneau also has a great on-base percentage, though it's not as good as Mauer's (Mauer's OBP = .418, Morneau's OBP = .391) But getting on base is just half of the equation; you also have to be able to score on someone's hit or out.
Mauer, who's hit 3rd nearly all year, is hitting ahead of a batting order slot that's tallied a .321/895 hitting line. Morneau, who's hit 4th in every game he's played this year, is hitting ahead of a batting order slot that's tallied a .244/682 batting line. Mauer's been hitting ahead of Morneau all year, while Morneau has effectively been hitting ahead of Ryan Garko. And while the 5-spot for the Twins hasn't been very impressive, it's not significantly worse than the Twins' six and seven slots (.251/734 and .268/700 respectively). It helps that Morneau's been on base 161 times this year, third in the AL, but Mauer's been on base 150 times and is hitting ahead of a guy with about an extra 200 points of OPS.
The difference isn't speed -- Morneau's not as lumbering as you might think, but he's no Carlos Gomez -- but intelligence. Watching Morneau, you see how he recognizes situations where he can take an extra base (such as the base he grabbed on defensive indifference after being intentionally walked in the All-Star Game).
The guy works hard, he's got smarts, and he can smack 25-35 homers a year. He's still overrated in some circles, but he's becoming one of my favorite Twins precisely because so many people seem to miss the little things he does that don't dazzle, but still win games.
Saturday, July 12, 2008
What Brian Bass Can Teach Us About Sabermetrics
A prophet is not without honour, save in his own country, and in his own house.
- Matthew 13:57
Let me start by saying something so obvious that I don't see any need to defend it, though I will anyway: you will always be able to find hometown fans who think their manager sucks, no matter how successful he appears to be. I had a friend who moved to Houston in the late '90s looking to score in the Internet boom who became an Astros fan while he was down there and was absolutely convinced that Larry Dierker was a horrible manager, despite a record of four division titles in five seasons with the same talent that finished second in the division every year under Terry Collins prior to Dierker's arrival and finished second in the division every year under Jimy Williams after Dierker's departure. Heck, I bet if I looked hard enough, I could find a long comment explaining how Joe Torre is a cruddy manager, and was even during the so-called 'Yankee Dynasty' of the late '90s.
It is with that intro that I turn to the Twins manager, Ron Gardenhire.
The Twins blogosphere has a definite love-hate relationship with Gardenhire; though perhaps a better description of that would be tolerate-hate. I understand that the same is probably true of every big-league manager, but of course I don't read as much of other teams' blogospheres as I do that of the Twins, so that's what I know. Local bloggers used to refer to Gardenhire as 'Gardentool', (example two) and though they've eased up on the ad hominem name-calling, they haven't stopped trying to convince others that they're right.
Case in point: on Monday, July 7, Ron Gardenhire brought reliever Brian Bass into a scoreless tie with the Boston Red Sox, in Boston, in the eighth inning. Bass gave up a ground-rule double to Dustin Pedroia, got J.D. Drew to ground out, then gave up the go-ahead run on a single by Manny Ramirez in a game the Twins eventually lost 1-0. The Twins went on to lose all three games in the Boston series, and to read the blogosphere you'd have thought the sky was falling. Local blogger Stick & Ball Guy mentioned the appearance in a Joe Posnanski thread praising Gardenhire; local-boy-made-good Aaron Gleeman mentioned it as well on his eponymous website. Both seem convinced that Joe Nathan should have been the pitcher called for in that situation and, at least by implication, that a superior manager would have done so.
Fast-forward to Saturday, July 12. The Twins lead the Detroit Tigers 6-2 in Detroit heading into the bottom of the eighth inning. Starter Scott Baker returns to the mound, surrenders a single and a homer to narrow the margin to 6-4, and is relieved by Jesse Crain. Crain gives up an infield single and walk, but manages to retire the first out of the inning before being replaced by Dennys Reyes. Reyes advances the baserunners on a wild pitch, allows a run to score on a groundout to narrow the margin to 6-5, and is himself pulled from the game.
Joe Nathan enters now, right? Two out, bottom of the eighth, high leverage situation -- you go to your closer, right? Nope -- Gardenhire turns to Brian Bass. Bass gets the third out on a grounder, Nathan strikes out the side in the bottom of the ninth, and the Twins win 6-5 for their third straight victory.
Does Ron Gardenhire know something the rest of us in the blogosphere didn't know? Actually, he probably does:
- Almost nobody in the blogosphere attends every Twins game (and nobody qualifies unless you count the newspaper-sponsored 'blogs' of the Twins beat writers); Gardenhire does.
- Nobody in the blogosphere attends every Twins practice; Gardenhire does.
- Nobody in the blogosphere knows what the Twins' coaching staff have asked players to work on, and watched to see if they're working on it and how effectively they're doing so; Gardenhire is part of the process that determines what a player should be working on, judges how effective he's being, and decides to expand or restrict the player's responsibilities based on that information.
Traditional baseball folks seem to enjoy dismissing the insights of sabermetrically-aware folks by claiming that they don't really understand 'the game', or that they spend so much time poring over their spreadsheets that they don't really watch baseball. That may be true in individual cases, but some of the most knowledgeable sabermetric analysts in baseball are also among the most knowledgeable fans on the subject of baseball history (see this Posnanski essay for a humorous example).
The traditional baseball folks do have a point, though, even if they don't really understand how to communicate it: with all of the focus on in-game events that statistical analysis uses, it's very easy to assume, if you're a stat-head, that only things that happen in actual games matter when it comes time to analyze a player: how good he is, what his role should be in the future, etcetera. Even if you don't believe that only things that happen in games are significant, the presumption is that things that happen in games are vastly more significant, because they are the things we can measure. To someone with sabermetric leanings, three games in AAA are more valuable than three bullpen sessions with the big-league pitching coach, because the AAA games can be analyzed and parsed; as far as sabermetrics are concerned, the bullpen sessions 'just happen'.
My point is that, if Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson are comfortable bringing in Brian Bass in a key situation, maybe the reason is less that they don't understand the situation and more that they've seen something in Bass -- his bullpen sessions, his velocity, the way he carries himself in the locker room after tough outings -- that makes them think that he should be given that opportunity.
Should those of us on the outside be surprised or dismiss the event as a bullet dodged when it works out?
Now just to be absolutely clear, I'm not advocating that outside sources of information should trump sabermetric knowledge; that way leads well past Joe Morgan out to where Bill Walton mumbles about 'great players making great plays in critical situations', and that wouldn't be at all an improvement. What I'm saying is that sometimes what looks like a bad decision sabermetrically might not be nearly as bad as we think it is, because we lack the tools to measure the factors that make it a better decision.
And by the way, in June, Brian Bass had a 2.45 ERA and allowed just nineteen baserunners in eighteen and a third innings. So maybe sometimes we have the tools after all.
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Where the Indians are Spending Their Money
For those that were wondering where the money is going on the Indians roster this season, consider the following when it comes to what the following players are making, and where on the club they rank:
1. Jake Westbrook $10 mil per year - On the DL for the rest of the year after major surgery, and may not be ready to go again till the summer of 2009.
2. Travis Hafer $8 mil per year - Has never hit the same after getting his new deal, and was struggling before that. Is on the DL with a shoulder issue that really has never been fully disclosed.
3. Paul Byrd $7.5 mil per year - 3-10 this year w/ a 5.53 ERA. Was the subject of a steroids scandal story in the ALCS, and since then he's been cleared, but has never pitched as well as last season.
4. Casey Blake $6.1 mil per year - Having a solid season, batting .279 with 8 homers and 47 RBI, but likely will be traded before the deadline.
5. Victor Martinez $4.4 million per year - Tweaked his hamstring opening day vs the White Sox, and has not been the same. Lack of power alarming as he's hitting just .278 with no homers and 21 RBI. Also on the DL.
7. David Dellucci $3.7 mil per year - Has basically been a bust in the two seasons with the team, hitting just .220 with 7 homers and 27 RBI, was hurt a good portion of last season, and will be gone when his contract is up.
9. Masa Kybayashi $3 mil per year - Has had good and bad moments in his first year playing ball in America. Has four saves and an ERA of 3.21. The team has hopes that he may eventually be the closer.
10. Jhonny Peralta $2.5 mil per year - Hitting .250 with 14 homers and 40 RBI. Still blasted by many for his shoddy play at short and lack of big hits, Peralta has never regained his 2005 form when he hit .292 with 24 homers and 78 RBI.
The other two players in the Top 10 not listed are Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore, two players that have lived up to or even passed expectations for this season.
1. Jake Westbrook $10 mil per year - On the DL for the rest of the year after major surgery, and may not be ready to go again till the summer of 2009.
2. Travis Hafer $8 mil per year - Has never hit the same after getting his new deal, and was struggling before that. Is on the DL with a shoulder issue that really has never been fully disclosed.
3. Paul Byrd $7.5 mil per year - 3-10 this year w/ a 5.53 ERA. Was the subject of a steroids scandal story in the ALCS, and since then he's been cleared, but has never pitched as well as last season.
4. Casey Blake $6.1 mil per year - Having a solid season, batting .279 with 8 homers and 47 RBI, but likely will be traded before the deadline.
5. Victor Martinez $4.4 million per year - Tweaked his hamstring opening day vs the White Sox, and has not been the same. Lack of power alarming as he's hitting just .278 with no homers and 21 RBI. Also on the DL.
7. David Dellucci $3.7 mil per year - Has basically been a bust in the two seasons with the team, hitting just .220 with 7 homers and 27 RBI, was hurt a good portion of last season, and will be gone when his contract is up.
9. Masa Kybayashi $3 mil per year - Has had good and bad moments in his first year playing ball in America. Has four saves and an ERA of 3.21. The team has hopes that he may eventually be the closer.
10. Jhonny Peralta $2.5 mil per year - Hitting .250 with 14 homers and 40 RBI. Still blasted by many for his shoddy play at short and lack of big hits, Peralta has never regained his 2005 form when he hit .292 with 24 homers and 78 RBI.
The other two players in the Top 10 not listed are Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore, two players that have lived up to or even passed expectations for this season.
Indians News: 9th Straight Loss, LaPorta Debut Ruined, Rincon, Elarton, C.C.
Below is a quick look at all the news around the Indians Tuesday:
* Miguel Cabrera went 4-for-4, clubbing two homers and plating three, as Detroit crushed the Indians, 9-2, on Tuesday night. Marcus Thames and Curtis Granderson had three RBI apiece, with two of Thames’ RBI coming off his 17th long ball of the season. Ivan Rodriguez added a solo shot in the win. Justin Verlander tossed seven solid innings, allowing two runs and fanning seven to improve to 6-and-9 for Detroit, which has won two in-a-row to move to 45-and-44 on the season. Jeremy Sowers absorbed the loss for the Indians after yielding seven runs, six earned, over 5.2 innings of work. Jhonny Peralta clubbed a two-run homer for the Tribe, which has dropped a season-high nine straight games. The Indians will conclude their series with the Tigers tonight. Paul Byrd, who’s 3-and-10 with a 5.53 ERA, will start for the Indians. The Tigers will send out Eddie Bonine, who’s 2-and-1 with a 4.30 ERA. First pitch at Comerica Park is set for 7:05 p.m.
* The Akron debut of outfielder Matt LaPorta was delayed as the Aeros had their game against the Bowie Baysox rained out on Tuesday night. LaPorta is the main piece the Indians received from Milwaukee as they sent pitcher C.C. Sabathia to the Brewers. The game will be made up as part of a doubleheader tonight. The first pitch of the first game at Canal Park is set for 6:05 p.m.
* The Indians are expected to call up from Triple-A Buffalo today relief pitcher Juan Rincon. He will take the roster spot left vacant by the trading of Sabathia to the Brewers on Monday. The Indians will need a starter to take Sabathia’s turn on Saturday and could call up Matt Ginter from the minors.
* The Indians placed pitcher Scott Elarton on the 15-day disabled list on Tuesday for a non-baseball medical condition. Elarton had been on the restricted list because of personal issues. Manager Eric Wedge said that Elarton is out indefinitely. Elarton was 0-and-1 with a 3.52 ERA out of the bullpen.
* As for the debut of Sabathia in a Brewers uniform - he picked up the win as Milwaukee edged Colorado 7-3 at Miller Park. Sabathia allowed two earned runs while fanning five and walking five over six innings to pick up the victory. Ryan Braun smashed his 22nd homer of the year, and Bill Hall plated two for Milwaukee, which has won seven-of-nine. Prince Fielder and Corey Hart had an RBI apiece in the win. Yorvit Torrealba doubled in two runs in defeat for Colorado. Mark Redman gave up four runs over five frames to fall to 2-and-4.
* Miguel Cabrera went 4-for-4, clubbing two homers and plating three, as Detroit crushed the Indians, 9-2, on Tuesday night. Marcus Thames and Curtis Granderson had three RBI apiece, with two of Thames’ RBI coming off his 17th long ball of the season. Ivan Rodriguez added a solo shot in the win. Justin Verlander tossed seven solid innings, allowing two runs and fanning seven to improve to 6-and-9 for Detroit, which has won two in-a-row to move to 45-and-44 on the season. Jeremy Sowers absorbed the loss for the Indians after yielding seven runs, six earned, over 5.2 innings of work. Jhonny Peralta clubbed a two-run homer for the Tribe, which has dropped a season-high nine straight games. The Indians will conclude their series with the Tigers tonight. Paul Byrd, who’s 3-and-10 with a 5.53 ERA, will start for the Indians. The Tigers will send out Eddie Bonine, who’s 2-and-1 with a 4.30 ERA. First pitch at Comerica Park is set for 7:05 p.m.
* The Akron debut of outfielder Matt LaPorta was delayed as the Aeros had their game against the Bowie Baysox rained out on Tuesday night. LaPorta is the main piece the Indians received from Milwaukee as they sent pitcher C.C. Sabathia to the Brewers. The game will be made up as part of a doubleheader tonight. The first pitch of the first game at Canal Park is set for 6:05 p.m.
* The Indians are expected to call up from Triple-A Buffalo today relief pitcher Juan Rincon. He will take the roster spot left vacant by the trading of Sabathia to the Brewers on Monday. The Indians will need a starter to take Sabathia’s turn on Saturday and could call up Matt Ginter from the minors.
* The Indians placed pitcher Scott Elarton on the 15-day disabled list on Tuesday for a non-baseball medical condition. Elarton had been on the restricted list because of personal issues. Manager Eric Wedge said that Elarton is out indefinitely. Elarton was 0-and-1 with a 3.52 ERA out of the bullpen.
* As for the debut of Sabathia in a Brewers uniform - he picked up the win as Milwaukee edged Colorado 7-3 at Miller Park. Sabathia allowed two earned runs while fanning five and walking five over six innings to pick up the victory. Ryan Braun smashed his 22nd homer of the year, and Bill Hall plated two for Milwaukee, which has won seven-of-nine. Prince Fielder and Corey Hart had an RBI apiece in the win. Yorvit Torrealba doubled in two runs in defeat for Colorado. Mark Redman gave up four runs over five frames to fall to 2-and-4.
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
Go-Go Soak Your Head
When the Twins completed their off-season trade of Johan Santana to the Mets, many local observers were disappointed that the Twins didn't land a clearly marquis player in return, especially given that Red Sox center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury was rumored to be one of the players in the mix. While many grumbled, some decided to take a closer look at the players the Twins did get, specifically center field prospect Carlos Gomez. (Even so, this pre-season poll saw Gomez finish just behind Jason Pridie as the Twinkie Town choice for the club's starting centerfielder.)
Spring training began, and Gomez began to draw some attention to himself. Then the season started, and the bandwagon really started to roll. Gomez quickly became a fan favorite, as well as a frequent subject of local sportswriters.
Others are welcome to go ga-ga over Gomez: I'm not. While I can accept that Gomez, at a baseball age of 22, could conceivably develop into a star, I'm about to argue that right now, in 2008, the Twins are winning not because of Gomez's contributions, but in spite of them.
Offense
Carlos Gomez is not a good offensive player, however you choose to measure it.
Gomez is currently batting .266 with a 671 OPS. This is almost identical to offensive punchline Neifi Perez's career batting numbers (.267 BA, 672 OPS). That's a pretty damning piece of evidence right off the top.
In our previous post, we examined the Twins' offensive improvement from April to June with an eye toward trying to figure out if the improvement was sustainable. We found that some Twins players had shown marked improvement, while ineffective players had been replaced with more effective players. Except for Gomez:
April - .265/651
June - .236/575
Even with all that said, an overall .266/671 line isn't necessarily crippling to a team's offense -- after all, those numbers are close to the AL's overall batting line for #8 hitters (.254/705) and are superior to the AL's overall batting line for #9 hitters (.242/643).
Problem is, Gomez bats leadoff, and has in every game he's started for the Twins.
The AL is the home of the three most sabermetrically-aware clubs in MLB (the A's, Red Sox, and Blue Jays), and as such it's pretty clear that the 'leadoff man should have a good OBP' meme has penetrated the league: the combined OBP of all the AL's leadoff men is .343, which is significantly higher than Gomez's OBP of .301.
The easiest way to see the impact of this difference in OBP is to look at Joe Mauer. As I write this, Mauer is second in the AL in batting average, and has hit behind Gomez all year -- he hit second for the first week of the season, and has hit third in every game he's started since. Mauer has 37 RBI.
Allow me to repeat that: Joe Mauer has 37 RBI. The 'average' major league hitter will also have 37 RBI in 331 plate appearances, according to baseball-reference.com, but the average major league hitter will also have had 207 baserunners aboard during his 331 plate appearances; Mauer has had ten fewer than that. (Note: that link is to Mauer's current 2008 gamelog page, which was as written on July 8.)
The Twins have 38 RBI from their #3 hitter in 2008; that's the second-lowest total in the league, behind the Blue Jays. That's a direct result of Gomez's below-average on-base ability. And yes, I can back that up: you'll remember that Mauer is second in the AL in batting average? He's also second in the AL in on-base percentage. His teammate, Justin Morneau, is leading the team in RBI (and is second in the AL) with 65. The 'average' major league hitter will have just 42 RBI in 379 plate appearances; Morneau has hit with an extra 47 runners on base in his at-bats, many of which have been Joe Mauer.
Let's say you prefer more 'modern' measures of performance and value. OK, then.
According to the Hardball Times, Gomez has 6.1 offensive Win Shares thus far in 2008. This puts him, offensively, between Marcus Thames of Detroit and Ben Francisco of Cleveland, both of whom have hit well. Except...Thames has put up his Win Shares in just 58 games, having missed a chunk of the season due to injury. Same with Francisco -- he's also played in just 58 games. Gomez has nearly the same offensive Win Shares despite having played in 82 games and having about the same number of plate appearances as Thames and Francisco combined. So that's not really a good comparison. A better comparison would be Coco Crisp, who's occasionally led off for the Red Sox when Jacoby Ellsbury hasn't played, but who typically has hit 7th, 8th, or even 9th for the Sox in his 65 games thus far. The two men are very close in Win Share Percentage, which is basically a Hardball Times 'tweak' of Win Shares to take 'rate' into consideration.
How about Win Probability Added? While I'm not a fan of WPA as a value measure, I can accept that WPA does capture, to a degree, what a player does in-game to help his team win (or fails to do which helps cost his team a win) with his offense. According to Fangraphs, Gomez in 2008 has had enough good games to have added 5.81 potential wins with his offense; unfortunately, he's also had enough bad games to have cost the Twins 7.18 potential wins, just with his offense, for a net WPA of -1.37. This is the second-worst total among AL outfielders, trailing only KC's Mark Teahen, and the fourth-worst in all of major league baseball.
If all of this fails to convince you that Gomez isn't a good offensive ballplayer in 2008, I don't see how you can be convinced.
Defense
On the other hand, Gomez has an excellent defensive reputation, if a bit spotty given that his youthful exuberance leads him to try to make some plays which are simply unmakeable. The numbers seem to back him up as well: Gomez has more putouts, plays in zone, and plays out of zone than any other centerfielder in the AL, and his Zone Rating trails only Baltimore's Adam Jones. Pretty impressive, right?
Well, not as much as you might think. I'm also not a great fan of Zone Rating as a defensive measure, because one of the things it doesn't do is adjust for groundball/flyball tendencies among the team's pitching staff.**
For instance, the Twins have had seven different men start ballgames for them in 2008:
Nick Blackburn - GB% = 44.2
Livan Hernandez - GB% = 44.0
Francisco Liriano - GB% = 42.9
Boof Bonser - GB% = 38.9
Glen Perkins - GB% = 34.4
Scott Baker - GB% = 33.9
Kevin Slowey - GB% = 33.2
Over the past few years, the Twins developed a reputation for being a groundball staff, thanks largely to the efforts of sinkerballer Carlos Silva; since Silva's departure, however, the Twins starters are much more of a flyball-oriented staff. The lowest GB% among AL starters qualified for the ERA title is Javier Vasquez of the White Sox at 34.4%; the Twins have gotten over 220 innings of pitching from guys with an even lower groundball percentage than Vasquez. Blackburn and Hernandez, the Twins' leaders in GB% among their starters, are right around the middle of the pack when compared to other starters in the AL.
So the Twins have a flyball starting staff, which means that they give up more flies than grounders, which means that Gomez gets more chances than other AL centerfielders, not based on talent, but based on opportunity. Saying that Gomez's total chances makes him one of the best centerfielders in the AL would be like saying that Casey Blake is one of the best defensive third-basemen in the AL just because the Indian's starting staff (before yesterday, anyway) had more southpaws than righthanders.
** - On the other hand, I can see why ZR doesn't adjust for GB/FB; how do you actually do it? We know the GB%s for the Twins starters, so we can probably figure out how many 'extra' flyballs they give up as opposed to a more typical rotation, but how then do you apply that to the fielders? Once you figure that out, how do you adjust the 'plays'; remove only plays in zone? Plays in zone and plays made in zone? Most perversely of all, if you use the player's existing ZR as a weighting factor to determine what percentage of plays to remove, then there's no point in actually making this adjustment -- the ZR you get after the adjustment will be almost exactly the same as the ZR you had before, which defeats the purpose of even trying to make an adjustment.
This is one of the big reasons I'm down on ZR as a defensive metric; there are obvious flaws with the stat, but those flaws are almost impossible to eliminate or compensate for.
Gomez is also said to have a strong throwing arm, and his six outfield assists seem to support that idea. Except...looking at the Hardball Times data, each of those six assists have come on a double-play; it's not that Gomez is cutting down baserunners attempting to advance, he's throwing out baserunners trying to get back to second after a liner. Even more to the point, Gomez is among the AL leaders in errors for centerfielders, and four of his errors have been throwing errors, where he's sailed a ball to the wrong base or over the head of the cutoff man and allowed an opponent to take an extra base as a result.
Delmon Young, who does have a powerful throwing arm, has eight outfield assists, only two of which have been on double plays, and has just two throwing errors. Michael Cuddyer, who also has a strong throwing arm, has six outfield assists and no throwing errors. If you watch the games, you can see why; Young and Cuddyer can plant and make a strong throw from a standing position, whereas Gomez's strong throws all seem to come from running starts. This doesn't mean that Gomez has a rag arm, but it does mean that some of his reputation for being a strong thrower is coming from his speed, not his arm.
Despite all this, I'm not going to argue that Gomez is a poor defensive centerfielder; he's more limited than his defenders are willing to admit, but he's still pretty good when he avoids panicked rookie mode. With that said, he's far from a great defender: his 1.8 defensive Win Shares matches Gary Matthews Jr of the Angels, and trails Nick Swisher (whom most observers claim is out of position in center), Coco Crisp (who himself trails Jacoby Ellsbury), and the Twins' former centerfielder, Torii Hunter.
As I noted at the top of this essay, it's certainly possible that Gomez could develop into a star. And even I'll admit it's worth a chuckle to see Gomez get on the nerves of his opponents. But, no, I have no man-crush on Carlos Gomez right now, because he's just not good enough to deserve one.
Sunday, July 6, 2008
Is It Really A Hit Parade If There's No Band Playing?
In the last Twins post, we looked at the curious bit of info that the Twins were eighth in the AL in slugging and on-base percentage at the start of July, despite having been dead last in OBP and near last in slugging at the end of April. The obvious conclusion is that the Twins' offense has improved, but the obvious questions related to that conclusion are:
1. How?
2. Can they keep it going?
We've looked at the Twins' offensive splits by month before as well, but a recap is in order:
As you might expect, some players are more responsible for that improvement than others. Here's a list of those most responsible:
Jason Kubel
April - .237/639 (101 plate appearances)
June - .312/1045 (93 plate appearances)
With the acquisition of Delmon Young via trade and Craig Monroe via free agency, Twins bloggers were concerned that current Twin Jason Kubel (known best for spectacularly blowing out his knee during the 2004 Arizona Fall League and missing the entire 2005 season in rehab) would end up being the odd-man out. Sentiment in the blogosphere was so overwhelmingly in favor of continuing to give Kubel his shot that a handful of bloggers spearheaded a 'Free Jason Kubel' campaign, hoping to draw attention to the slugging former prospect. Unfortunately, after a scorching few games early in the season, Kubel went into a funk so deep, while Monroe heated up, that I observed that perhaps it would be better to put Kubel back in the box.
Fortunately, Ron Gardenhire doesn't listen to me. Kubel did play a bit less often in May (81 plate appearances in 17 starts), but began rebounding during the month and by June was hitting as well as any Twin on the roster.
Kubel isn't as bad as he looked in April, but he's also not as good as he looked in June. If he can stay closer to June than to April for the rest of the year, he'll be easily worth an investment of over 450 plate appearances, which was Gardenhire's unofficial goal for Kubel early in the season.
Delmon Young
April - .265/619 (108 PA)
June - .321/817 (88 PA)
Delmon Young, by some measures, wasn't hitting too badly in April -- except that he wasn't hitting for much power (three doubles, a triple and no homers out of 27 hits) or drawing many walks (6 walks against 19 strikeouts in 108 PAs), so what Bill James would refer to as Young's 'secondary average' was awfully low. Young has improved in power in June (7 doubles and two homers out of 27 hits), but not in patience (3 walks against 16 strikeouts in 88 PAs), so while his OPS improvement is significant (it's hard to consider a near-200 point increase insignificant), it's still not as impressive as Kubel's.
At the same time, Young's June production is far more likely to be sustainable than Kubel's, at least from an OPS perspective; even if Young drops thirty to fifty points in batting average, a few extra doubles or homers (or a few extra walks) can help make up for it. While Young is unlikely to continue to hit over .300 the rest of the year, a 750 to 800 OPS would be right in line with most predictions for his 2008 season.
Joe Mauer
April - .295/744 (99 PAs)
June - .341/991 (104 PAs)
It's odd to think of Mauer -- the Twins first fan-elected All-Star since 2002 -- as being on a list of 'most improved' Twins offensively given those April numbers. Sure, he was a bit light in power, but overall those numbers aren't that far off from Mauer's 2007 numbers, when the Twins finished below .500.
In June, however, Mauer hit like the batting champion from 2006, and combined with a late-April shift from the #2 to the #3 spot in the batting order allowed Mauer to cement his claim at the Twins best offensive player, Justin Morneau notwithstanding.
Speaking of which, while Morneau has improved his batting average by nearly 50 points since April, his OPS has actually gone down -- he's gone from a team-leading 840 OPS in April (by a large margin -- second was Michael Cuddyer's 755) to a middle-of-the-pack 815 OPS in June.
As to whether Mauer can keep this up, well, I'm of two minds: on one hand, it would make sense that Mauer's 'real level of talent' likely falls somewhere between those two monthly totals. On the other hand, Mauer is in his prime, and those June numbers aren't that much better than his overall numbers for 2006 when he won the batting title and probably should have been considered more seriously for MVP. If Mauer stays healthy, it's certainly far from impossible that he might reprise his 2006 season in the second half.
Michael Cuddyer
April - .297/755 (40 PAs)
June - .291/866 (91 PAs)
In Cuddyer's case, the benefit to the Twins is partly due to the value of Cuddyer's production in June versus his production in April, but also due to the volume of that production; Cuddyer spent a good portion of April on the disabled list, and though Denard Span looked good enough in person (and did well enough on his return to AAA to stay on the Twins' brass' minds), Span's .258/582 line in 34 April PAs didn't come anywhere near replacing Cuddyer's bat.
Of course, as I write this, Cuddyer is back on the DL and Span is back up with the major league club (though Span played just one game for the Twins in June). Cuddyer may return after the All-Star break, and for this reason, the question for Cuddyer is not if he can maintain his level of production (though his June production is higher than his career average), but if he can stay healthy enough to contribute down the stretch.
The Replacements
April -
Mike Lamb - .205/508 (84 PAs)
Nick Punto - .250/568 (44 PAs)
Adam Everett - .185/437 (29 PAs)
total - .214/510 (157 PAs)
June -
Matt Macri - .333/839 (28 PAs)
Brian Buscher - .360/810 (54 PAs)
Alexi Casilla - .304/742 (114 PAs)
total - .324/757 (196 PAs)
You might not think a .324/757 line was all that impressive; though it's certainly a nice batting average, it doesn't necessarily show a lot of power or patience. But by the standards set by the Twins left-side infielders and reserves in April, .324/757 is like a cool oasis in a parched desert. Nick Punto and Adam Everett both lost their roles due to injury, though Punto is back and reprising the role of super-sub he played to the hilt in 2006. Mike Lamb, however, just seems to have lost his way, which is an unfortunate coda to his major-league career; Lamb is signed through 2009 with a club option for 2010, but at this point it's hard to see the Twins, or any other club for that matter, taking a chance on Lamb for more than the league minimum for his service time.
Macri is back in AAA with Punto's return, but Buscher and Casilla are still playing -- Buscher certainly wouldn't maintain his own pace with regular play, but his numbers can't really get much worse given his reserve role, even if his performance drops off a bit. Meanwhile, Casilla seems to have grabbed hold of the everyday second-base job for the Twins, displacing Brendan Harris to shortstop and (lately) third base. Casilla's numbers may also tail off as the season wears on, but the Twins still have the option of moving Harris (.249/652 overall) back to second if Casilla falls off the planet.
So on the whole, the Twins' offense is clearly better now than it was at the start of the year, which should let us put a nice caveat in discussions that compare the Twins current scoring with their season-overall offensive numbers. And, while it's likely that the offense won't stay this good for the rest of 2008...
1. it's not likely to regress all the way back to the April numbers, and
2. there's likely the potential for continued improvement in the pitching staff to make up for any drop-off from the offense
I never expected to say this at the beginning of the season, but these Twins appear to be for real.
1. How?
2. Can they keep it going?
We've looked at the Twins' offensive splits by month before as well, but a recap is in order:
April - .260 BA/666 OPS
May - .273/740
June - .284/764
As you might expect, some players are more responsible for that improvement than others. Here's a list of those most responsible:
Jason Kubel
April - .237/639 (101 plate appearances)
June - .312/1045 (93 plate appearances)
With the acquisition of Delmon Young via trade and Craig Monroe via free agency, Twins bloggers were concerned that current Twin Jason Kubel (known best for spectacularly blowing out his knee during the 2004 Arizona Fall League and missing the entire 2005 season in rehab) would end up being the odd-man out. Sentiment in the blogosphere was so overwhelmingly in favor of continuing to give Kubel his shot that a handful of bloggers spearheaded a 'Free Jason Kubel' campaign, hoping to draw attention to the slugging former prospect. Unfortunately, after a scorching few games early in the season, Kubel went into a funk so deep, while Monroe heated up, that I observed that perhaps it would be better to put Kubel back in the box.
Fortunately, Ron Gardenhire doesn't listen to me. Kubel did play a bit less often in May (81 plate appearances in 17 starts), but began rebounding during the month and by June was hitting as well as any Twin on the roster.
Kubel isn't as bad as he looked in April, but he's also not as good as he looked in June. If he can stay closer to June than to April for the rest of the year, he'll be easily worth an investment of over 450 plate appearances, which was Gardenhire's unofficial goal for Kubel early in the season.
Delmon Young
April - .265/619 (108 PA)
June - .321/817 (88 PA)
Delmon Young, by some measures, wasn't hitting too badly in April -- except that he wasn't hitting for much power (three doubles, a triple and no homers out of 27 hits) or drawing many walks (6 walks against 19 strikeouts in 108 PAs), so what Bill James would refer to as Young's 'secondary average' was awfully low. Young has improved in power in June (7 doubles and two homers out of 27 hits), but not in patience (3 walks against 16 strikeouts in 88 PAs), so while his OPS improvement is significant (it's hard to consider a near-200 point increase insignificant), it's still not as impressive as Kubel's.
At the same time, Young's June production is far more likely to be sustainable than Kubel's, at least from an OPS perspective; even if Young drops thirty to fifty points in batting average, a few extra doubles or homers (or a few extra walks) can help make up for it. While Young is unlikely to continue to hit over .300 the rest of the year, a 750 to 800 OPS would be right in line with most predictions for his 2008 season.
Joe Mauer
April - .295/744 (99 PAs)
June - .341/991 (104 PAs)
It's odd to think of Mauer -- the Twins first fan-elected All-Star since 2002 -- as being on a list of 'most improved' Twins offensively given those April numbers. Sure, he was a bit light in power, but overall those numbers aren't that far off from Mauer's 2007 numbers, when the Twins finished below .500.
In June, however, Mauer hit like the batting champion from 2006, and combined with a late-April shift from the #2 to the #3 spot in the batting order allowed Mauer to cement his claim at the Twins best offensive player, Justin Morneau notwithstanding.
Speaking of which, while Morneau has improved his batting average by nearly 50 points since April, his OPS has actually gone down -- he's gone from a team-leading 840 OPS in April (by a large margin -- second was Michael Cuddyer's 755) to a middle-of-the-pack 815 OPS in June.
As to whether Mauer can keep this up, well, I'm of two minds: on one hand, it would make sense that Mauer's 'real level of talent' likely falls somewhere between those two monthly totals. On the other hand, Mauer is in his prime, and those June numbers aren't that much better than his overall numbers for 2006 when he won the batting title and probably should have been considered more seriously for MVP. If Mauer stays healthy, it's certainly far from impossible that he might reprise his 2006 season in the second half.
Michael Cuddyer
April - .297/755 (40 PAs)
June - .291/866 (91 PAs)
In Cuddyer's case, the benefit to the Twins is partly due to the value of Cuddyer's production in June versus his production in April, but also due to the volume of that production; Cuddyer spent a good portion of April on the disabled list, and though Denard Span looked good enough in person (and did well enough on his return to AAA to stay on the Twins' brass' minds), Span's .258/582 line in 34 April PAs didn't come anywhere near replacing Cuddyer's bat.
Of course, as I write this, Cuddyer is back on the DL and Span is back up with the major league club (though Span played just one game for the Twins in June). Cuddyer may return after the All-Star break, and for this reason, the question for Cuddyer is not if he can maintain his level of production (though his June production is higher than his career average), but if he can stay healthy enough to contribute down the stretch.
The Replacements
April -
Mike Lamb - .205/508 (84 PAs)
Nick Punto - .250/568 (44 PAs)
Adam Everett - .185/437 (29 PAs)
total - .214/510 (157 PAs)
June -
Matt Macri - .333/839 (28 PAs)
Brian Buscher - .360/810 (54 PAs)
Alexi Casilla - .304/742 (114 PAs)
total - .324/757 (196 PAs)
You might not think a .324/757 line was all that impressive; though it's certainly a nice batting average, it doesn't necessarily show a lot of power or patience. But by the standards set by the Twins left-side infielders and reserves in April, .324/757 is like a cool oasis in a parched desert. Nick Punto and Adam Everett both lost their roles due to injury, though Punto is back and reprising the role of super-sub he played to the hilt in 2006. Mike Lamb, however, just seems to have lost his way, which is an unfortunate coda to his major-league career; Lamb is signed through 2009 with a club option for 2010, but at this point it's hard to see the Twins, or any other club for that matter, taking a chance on Lamb for more than the league minimum for his service time.
Macri is back in AAA with Punto's return, but Buscher and Casilla are still playing -- Buscher certainly wouldn't maintain his own pace with regular play, but his numbers can't really get much worse given his reserve role, even if his performance drops off a bit. Meanwhile, Casilla seems to have grabbed hold of the everyday second-base job for the Twins, displacing Brendan Harris to shortstop and (lately) third base. Casilla's numbers may also tail off as the season wears on, but the Twins still have the option of moving Harris (.249/652 overall) back to second if Casilla falls off the planet.
So on the whole, the Twins' offense is clearly better now than it was at the start of the year, which should let us put a nice caveat in discussions that compare the Twins current scoring with their season-overall offensive numbers. And, while it's likely that the offense won't stay this good for the rest of 2008...
1. it's not likely to regress all the way back to the April numbers, and
2. there's likely the potential for continued improvement in the pitching staff to make up for any drop-off from the offense
I never expected to say this at the beginning of the season, but these Twins appear to be for real.
Saturday, July 5, 2008
7 and Counting - Indians Fall again in Minnesota 9-6
As the Indians attempts to turnover their bullpen continues, their losing streak Saturday night at the HHH Metrodome continued. After taking a 5-2 lead after the second inning, and getting five ho-hum innings from Aaron Laffey, the bullpen imploded again, allowing five runs in three innings in the teams 7th straight loss, 9-6 to the Twins.
The bullpens culprits on this Saturday night included Tom Mastny, who allowed four runs on two hits in just 0.1, and Rafael Perez, who gave up one run on one hit in 1.1. The Twins moved to 5-4 after five innings, and then put the game away with a five run 6th to move to 49-38 on the season.
The Indians fall to 37-50, 13 games under .500 and 13 games back of the White Sox in the AL Central. The offense was highlighted by Grady Sizemore, who went 2-for-5 with his 22nd homer and RBI. Andy Marte showed signs of life at the plate, going 2-for-4 with his first RBI of the year, he's batting .150.
The loss means that the Tribe, who were one game away from being the AL reps in the World Series just 8 months ago, now have the second worst record in baseball. “You can’t think about that now, ‘cause we’re here,” Grady Sizemore said. “You can’t be frustrated with the way things started because of the success last year. You have to move forward and find a way to make this year positive.”
It's not getting easier to watch this team, and with C.C. Sabathia and probably at least 1-2 other players, like Casey Blake heading out the door to other teams in the next three weeks, it's probably not going to get much better.
The bullpens culprits on this Saturday night included Tom Mastny, who allowed four runs on two hits in just 0.1, and Rafael Perez, who gave up one run on one hit in 1.1. The Twins moved to 5-4 after five innings, and then put the game away with a five run 6th to move to 49-38 on the season.
The Indians fall to 37-50, 13 games under .500 and 13 games back of the White Sox in the AL Central. The offense was highlighted by Grady Sizemore, who went 2-for-5 with his 22nd homer and RBI. Andy Marte showed signs of life at the plate, going 2-for-4 with his first RBI of the year, he's batting .150.
The loss means that the Tribe, who were one game away from being the AL reps in the World Series just 8 months ago, now have the second worst record in baseball. “You can’t think about that now, ‘cause we’re here,” Grady Sizemore said. “You can’t be frustrated with the way things started because of the success last year. You have to move forward and find a way to make this year positive.”
It's not getting easier to watch this team, and with C.C. Sabathia and probably at least 1-2 other players, like Casey Blake heading out the door to other teams in the next three weeks, it's probably not going to get much better.
Joey Gath(wrong)right
Joey Gath(wrong)wright
The Royals are playing the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, for the first time since their name change. Their name change coincides with not only the Rays being the leader in the financial nightmare that is the American League East, but they are also the keepers of the best record in baseball. This is a startling change from the Devil Rays we knew just last year. This is the first time in history a team has had the best record in baseball and had the first pick in the amateur draft. The turn around for the Rays is remarkable. Of course, the Rays are a team that the Kansas City Royals and their fans should watch with great interest.
This is also an interesting series, because the Rays have been a trading partner of the Royals for years, during the current regime and in the previous regime as well. When Dayton Moore arrived here, he said he wanted to improve three key areas, which would facilitate the Royals improving in the win/loss column without spending beyond their means. Firstly, he said he wanted to improve pitching-both on the big league club and in the farm system. Secondly, he wanted to improve defense. Finally, he wanted to add speed to the team.
His first acquisition, once he took over the Royals was to acquire Joey Gathwright from the then, Devil Rays. The cost of the acquisition was one of the Royals highly touted (at least in the previous regime’s mind) pitchers J.P. Howell. He was a soft throwing lefty from the University of Texas. He had solid numbers in the minors, but apparently Dayton Moore and his staff were less than enamored with Howell. Before you could say 88-91 MPH fastball, Howell was living it up in sunny Tampa and Gathwright was a member of the Royals. I will admit, I was a fan of the move when it was made. I was not impressed with Howell and from what I had seen of Gathwright he was lightening quick and with his speed had the potential to be a great leadoff hitter and centerfielder.
I was a victim of something every Royals fan has to guard against, judging players (because that is when I see them) by how they play against the Royals. I guess if that was the case, every player in MLB-over the past few years-would be an All-Star and they would run out of Cy Youngs. Shortly after Gathwright arrived it was clear that while yes, he was fast, the old adage remains true “you can’t steal first”. After seeing many an average fastball nearly knock the bat out of Gathwrights hand, the truth of the adage hit home-much harder than Gathwright hits the baseball. Once the hope of having a Carl Crawford-notice a current Ray-passed, I hoped that Gathwright would be at least a good fourth outfielder. I regret to say that after watching him, misread, ball after ball after ball, in the outfield, he is an average center fielder at best. If he did not have blazing speed, he would be a below average fielder.
Whenever I think of outfielders, I consider what Andrew Jones used to be and the magician that is Torii Hunter. When one watches a game on tv, one has to be careful not to judge outfielders by the diving plays they make. Torrii Hunter gets a great read on the ball and then with his speed, gets to balls he has no business even having a shot at, while Gathwright uses his speed to correct the numerous mistakes he makes reading the ball. I am of the opinion that if Gathwright had read the ball correctly, in the early innings on Saturday, which drove in the first two runs for the Rays, it would have been, if not a routine play, certainly a catchable ball with his speed. Only one more run was scored in the game, by the Rays and Zack Greinke, was saddled with yet another loss, backed up by no run support.
Now to the other side of the equation, how did J. P. Howell do? Well, he is only a sub 3.00 era lefty out of the pen for the Rays. In the game on Saturday night, he came into it in the 8th inning. What did this cast off from the Royals do? He struck out the side and the Royals never looked like they had a chance.
Obviously, J.P. Howell is not going to be the deciding factor as to whether the Royals start winning. However, it is prudent to look at the trades of Dayton Moore; in order to judge his mistakes along with his successes. Dayton Moore has made some great trades, but certainly, his first trade was not one. He literally stole Brian Bannister from the Mets. I am not down on Dayton Moore, but I am certainly down on Joey Gathwright. Let’s hope in the future there will be many more Bannisters and few Gathwrights, and every Royals fan has to hope, there will be very few J.P. Howells. If Howell is the first in a long list of players the Royals gave up on, Dayton Moore will just be another name, on a long list of General Managers that could not bring Kansas City a winner.
The Royals are playing the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, for the first time since their name change. Their name change coincides with not only the Rays being the leader in the financial nightmare that is the American League East, but they are also the keepers of the best record in baseball. This is a startling change from the Devil Rays we knew just last year. This is the first time in history a team has had the best record in baseball and had the first pick in the amateur draft. The turn around for the Rays is remarkable. Of course, the Rays are a team that the Kansas City Royals and their fans should watch with great interest.
This is also an interesting series, because the Rays have been a trading partner of the Royals for years, during the current regime and in the previous regime as well. When Dayton Moore arrived here, he said he wanted to improve three key areas, which would facilitate the Royals improving in the win/loss column without spending beyond their means. Firstly, he said he wanted to improve pitching-both on the big league club and in the farm system. Secondly, he wanted to improve defense. Finally, he wanted to add speed to the team.
His first acquisition, once he took over the Royals was to acquire Joey Gathwright from the then, Devil Rays. The cost of the acquisition was one of the Royals highly touted (at least in the previous regime’s mind) pitchers J.P. Howell. He was a soft throwing lefty from the University of Texas. He had solid numbers in the minors, but apparently Dayton Moore and his staff were less than enamored with Howell. Before you could say 88-91 MPH fastball, Howell was living it up in sunny Tampa and Gathwright was a member of the Royals. I will admit, I was a fan of the move when it was made. I was not impressed with Howell and from what I had seen of Gathwright he was lightening quick and with his speed had the potential to be a great leadoff hitter and centerfielder.
I was a victim of something every Royals fan has to guard against, judging players (because that is when I see them) by how they play against the Royals. I guess if that was the case, every player in MLB-over the past few years-would be an All-Star and they would run out of Cy Youngs. Shortly after Gathwright arrived it was clear that while yes, he was fast, the old adage remains true “you can’t steal first”. After seeing many an average fastball nearly knock the bat out of Gathwrights hand, the truth of the adage hit home-much harder than Gathwright hits the baseball. Once the hope of having a Carl Crawford-notice a current Ray-passed, I hoped that Gathwright would be at least a good fourth outfielder. I regret to say that after watching him, misread, ball after ball after ball, in the outfield, he is an average center fielder at best. If he did not have blazing speed, he would be a below average fielder.
Whenever I think of outfielders, I consider what Andrew Jones used to be and the magician that is Torii Hunter. When one watches a game on tv, one has to be careful not to judge outfielders by the diving plays they make. Torrii Hunter gets a great read on the ball and then with his speed, gets to balls he has no business even having a shot at, while Gathwright uses his speed to correct the numerous mistakes he makes reading the ball. I am of the opinion that if Gathwright had read the ball correctly, in the early innings on Saturday, which drove in the first two runs for the Rays, it would have been, if not a routine play, certainly a catchable ball with his speed. Only one more run was scored in the game, by the Rays and Zack Greinke, was saddled with yet another loss, backed up by no run support.
Now to the other side of the equation, how did J. P. Howell do? Well, he is only a sub 3.00 era lefty out of the pen for the Rays. In the game on Saturday night, he came into it in the 8th inning. What did this cast off from the Royals do? He struck out the side and the Royals never looked like they had a chance.
Obviously, J.P. Howell is not going to be the deciding factor as to whether the Royals start winning. However, it is prudent to look at the trades of Dayton Moore; in order to judge his mistakes along with his successes. Dayton Moore has made some great trades, but certainly, his first trade was not one. He literally stole Brian Bannister from the Mets. I am not down on Dayton Moore, but I am certainly down on Joey Gathwright. Let’s hope in the future there will be many more Bannisters and few Gathwrights, and every Royals fan has to hope, there will be very few J.P. Howells. If Howell is the first in a long list of players the Royals gave up on, Dayton Moore will just be another name, on a long list of General Managers that could not bring Kansas City a winner.
Friday, July 4, 2008
Twins win series with Tigers, bludgeon Indians
Though the Twins breezed through interleague play with a league-best 14-4 record, there was some concern about the Twins returning to divisional play and possibly suffering a let-down. So far, that hasn't happened, as a series win versus Detroit and a 12-2 shellacking of Cleveland have pushed Minnesota to a previously unthinkable 10 games over .500.
How have they been doing it? Lately it's been a little of everything:
- In 8 of the past 15 games, the Twins have scored 6 or more runs.
- In 8 of the past 15 games, the Twins have allowed 3 or fewer runs.
On a team with few stars, it helps when everybody pitches in, and at this point the Twins are as much in a team mode as any club in the league: Craig Monroe and Jason Kubel hit key homers, Brian Bass and Jesse Crain get key outs in relief, and you probably won't see any of them at the All-Star Game. Heck, you might not even see Joe Nathan, despite FoxSports's Ken Rosenthal's endorsement of him; despite being poised to inherit the mantle of 'best closer in the AL' from the Yankees's Mariano Rivera, there's been more buzz around the Royals' Joachim Soria and the Orioles' George Sherill, and Nathan hasn't been to the All-Star Game since 2005 anyway.
Oh, and as long as we're talking about FoxSports guys...
Dayn Perry is the latest to weigh in on the topic du jour -- why the Twins run of good luck can't last. (Again, it's a topic I'm pretty familiar with.) Perry hits all the right notes -- he mentions the Twins good luck in clutch situations and their relatively poor on-base percentage and slugging percentage compared to their overall offensive output. But one thing stuck out as I was reading his essay:
Perry's not wrong -- the Twins have made up for a relative lack of OBP and SLG by coming through in key situations, and there's little reason to think that the Twins will keep that pace up all season long. On the other hand, back at the start of May the Twins were dead last in OBP in the AL and close to dead last in slugging -- the club was still waiting for its first home run by a right-handed hitter back then -- so that the club's offense has moved all the way up to middle-of-the-pack in each category is actually awfully encouraging, if that improvement can be sustained.
Can it? We'll get to that later.
How have they been doing it? Lately it's been a little of everything:
- In 8 of the past 15 games, the Twins have scored 6 or more runs.
- In 8 of the past 15 games, the Twins have allowed 3 or fewer runs.
On a team with few stars, it helps when everybody pitches in, and at this point the Twins are as much in a team mode as any club in the league: Craig Monroe and Jason Kubel hit key homers, Brian Bass and Jesse Crain get key outs in relief, and you probably won't see any of them at the All-Star Game. Heck, you might not even see Joe Nathan, despite FoxSports's Ken Rosenthal's endorsement of him; despite being poised to inherit the mantle of 'best closer in the AL' from the Yankees's Mariano Rivera, there's been more buzz around the Royals' Joachim Soria and the Orioles' George Sherill, and Nathan hasn't been to the All-Star Game since 2005 anyway.
Oh, and as long as we're talking about FoxSports guys...
Dayn Perry is the latest to weigh in on the topic du jour -- why the Twins run of good luck can't last. (Again, it's a topic I'm pretty familiar with.) Perry hits all the right notes -- he mentions the Twins good luck in clutch situations and their relatively poor on-base percentage and slugging percentage compared to their overall offensive output. But one thing stuck out as I was reading his essay:
There's also a divide between the Twins' offensive performance at the rate level and the number of runs they've scored. Despite their impressive runs total, they're a mere eighth in the AL in on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Given their below-average abilities when it comes to reaching base and hitting for power, the Twins have been exceedingly lucky to score as many runs as they have. They've made up the difference, as indicated above, by thriving in clutch situations. Whether you believe in the theoretical concept of "clutch" or not, it's almost impossible to imagine they'll able to keep that up.
(emphasis mine)
Perry's not wrong -- the Twins have made up for a relative lack of OBP and SLG by coming through in key situations, and there's little reason to think that the Twins will keep that pace up all season long. On the other hand, back at the start of May the Twins were dead last in OBP in the AL and close to dead last in slugging -- the club was still waiting for its first home run by a right-handed hitter back then -- so that the club's offense has moved all the way up to middle-of-the-pack in each category is actually awfully encouraging, if that improvement can be sustained.
Can it? We'll get to that later.
Tribe Starts to Look Ahead at 09 w/ Designating Borowski for Assignment
The Indians bullpen has been underachieving all season, and today the team made it's first major move to rebuild and look ahead for the 2009 season. The moves comes as follows: the team has recalled relievers Brian Slocum and Jensen Lewis, and designated relief pitchers Joe Borowski and Rick Bauer for assignment.
The biggest move in the bunch is finally calling it quits with Joe-Bo. This season has basically been a nightmare for Borowski, as he went 1-3 w/a 7.56 ERA in 18 games (6SV, 10OPP, 16.2IP, 24H, 14/RER) with the Indians this season. His real undoing came early in the season in blowing a save to the Red Sox when he allowed former Indian Manny Ramirez to blast a homer to lose a game it appeared the Indians had in hand.
It is uncertain who the closer will be from here, but right now that's the last of the Indians problems. I guess they will throw Rafael Betancourt in there again, if and when the Indians ever have another save situation. They could also use Masa Kobayashi, but he's struggled a lot as of late just in the bullpen role he has now.
Bauer posted an ERA of 13.50 in 4 relief appearances (8.0IP, 10H, 9R/ER). Lewis has split the 2008 campaign between AAA Buffalo and Cleveland. At Buffalo he has gone 1-2 with 1 save and a 3.60 ERA in 11 relief appearances (20.0IP, 16H, 8ER, 8BB, 18K) and has not allowed a run on 2 hits in his last 4 outings (6.0IP, 5K). Triple A hitters have hit .219 (16-73) off him with right-handed hitters batting .189 (7-37). Over the first two months of the season with Cleveland he posted a mark of 0-2 w/a 3.82 ERA in 21 games (30.2IP, 32H, 13ER). He will again wear #50.
Slocum has spent the majority of the season at AAA Buffalo and has flourished since being converted to a relief role three weeks ago. At Buffalo he has gone 3-5 w/a save and a 4.62 ERA in 18 games/11 starts (62.1IP, 59H, 32ER, 33BB, 55K). As a reliever, he has 1 save and a 0.69 ERA in 7 outings (13.0IP, 8H, 1R/ER, 3BB, 10K), limiting Triple A hitters to a .182 (8-44) average out of the ‘pen. Overall left-handed hitters have batted .206 (27-131) off him on the season at Buffalo. This will be his second stint at the big league level in 2008 as he did not appear in a game during his first stint with the club from June 4-6.
Make no mistake, this will be the first of many roster moves as the team begins to officially declare 2008 over and start looking ahead to 09.
The biggest move in the bunch is finally calling it quits with Joe-Bo. This season has basically been a nightmare for Borowski, as he went 1-3 w/a 7.56 ERA in 18 games (6SV, 10OPP, 16.2IP, 24H, 14/RER) with the Indians this season. His real undoing came early in the season in blowing a save to the Red Sox when he allowed former Indian Manny Ramirez to blast a homer to lose a game it appeared the Indians had in hand.
It is uncertain who the closer will be from here, but right now that's the last of the Indians problems. I guess they will throw Rafael Betancourt in there again, if and when the Indians ever have another save situation. They could also use Masa Kobayashi, but he's struggled a lot as of late just in the bullpen role he has now.
Bauer posted an ERA of 13.50 in 4 relief appearances (8.0IP, 10H, 9R/ER). Lewis has split the 2008 campaign between AAA Buffalo and Cleveland. At Buffalo he has gone 1-2 with 1 save and a 3.60 ERA in 11 relief appearances (20.0IP, 16H, 8ER, 8BB, 18K) and has not allowed a run on 2 hits in his last 4 outings (6.0IP, 5K). Triple A hitters have hit .219 (16-73) off him with right-handed hitters batting .189 (7-37). Over the first two months of the season with Cleveland he posted a mark of 0-2 w/a 3.82 ERA in 21 games (30.2IP, 32H, 13ER). He will again wear #50.
Slocum has spent the majority of the season at AAA Buffalo and has flourished since being converted to a relief role three weeks ago. At Buffalo he has gone 3-5 w/a save and a 4.62 ERA in 18 games/11 starts (62.1IP, 59H, 32ER, 33BB, 55K). As a reliever, he has 1 save and a 0.69 ERA in 7 outings (13.0IP, 8H, 1R/ER, 3BB, 10K), limiting Triple A hitters to a .182 (8-44) average out of the ‘pen. Overall left-handed hitters have batted .206 (27-131) off him on the season at Buffalo. This will be his second stint at the big league level in 2008 as he did not appear in a game during his first stint with the club from June 4-6.
Make no mistake, this will be the first of many roster moves as the team begins to officially declare 2008 over and start looking ahead to 09.
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Hodge Podge of Ball
First, I have to apologize for my lack of articles for the past few days. I have had some personal situations arise that have kept me from writing. Everything has settled down here now and I am back. This is going to be a somewhat encompassing article, spanning a few games and a few different topics.
The Cardinals series this past weekend ended in disappointing fashion. After taking the first game of the series, the Royals just did not have it in the second and third game. There was nothing remarkable about the games, the Cardinals pitched better and with Albert Pujols back had a much more damaging and elongated lineup. The Royals still took 4 out of 7 games from the Red Birds and that is always a good thing. It could have been better, but with the way the series has gone in the last few year, Royals fans will take it. Kyle Davies again did not have a great outing but it was nice to see, if not a dominate outing,a solid outing in the first game of the series from Gil Meche. Brian Bannister continued his up and down season. Guillen has cooled off, more on him later, and Mike Aviles is coming back to Earth and his defensive deficiencies are starting to show up. I am in now way saying that Aviles should not continue playing, but the jury on whether he can be a major league shortstop is still out. The biggest concern with David DeJesus is a concern yet again, he is hurt and that is by far the biggest question, can De Jesus stay healthy to play 140-162 games. He has yet to go on the list-for his latest injury-, and he has already been on the dl once this year. So it is his health is definitely a concern. He was injured in a freak way. I will not go as far as calling him “fragile”, but freak accidents are going to happen and if you are predisposed to other injuries, before you know it the player has missed 1-2 months of the season.
The first game against the Orioles was amazing. I certainly have to give kudos to Trey Hillman. While pinch hitting for a right handed batter for a left hander is “playing it by the book”, when the player you are pinch hitting for is still someone (Mark Teahen) that you hope will be a corner stone and building block of your franchise, it takes guts to make that call. The decision was further complicated by the fact that Miguel Olivo is a backup catcher. Trey Hillman went with the percentages, I will say a gutty move, and it worked out perfectly. A two-out two-strike pinch-hit homerun, it doesn’t get much better than that. The homerun was followed by a game winning RBI single by Guillen and of course a solid outing from the back of the bullpen, headlined by another vintage performance by the Mexicutioner, Joakim Soria.
The way the Royals played in the second game, they did not deserve to be in the game at all. The defense was porous. They had no business even being in the game. The Royals made defensive mistakes around the horn and Luke Hochevar did not have the ability to overcome it and gave up six runs. The bullpen came in and gave up another run. The Royals did a good job of fighting back and giving Alex Gordon a chance to tie the game or take the lead in the ninth inning. He struck out, but the game was not lost in the ninth it was lost much earlier on sloppy play and mental mistakes by the defense.
If you are wondering why I have not talked about Jose Guillen and everything that is swirling around him, it certainly has nothing to do with me avoiding the issue and I certainly have my thoughts on Guillen. I am going to watch Guillen tonight and after the game tonight, I am going to put my thoughts down on paper for everyone to see.
The Cardinals series this past weekend ended in disappointing fashion. After taking the first game of the series, the Royals just did not have it in the second and third game. There was nothing remarkable about the games, the Cardinals pitched better and with Albert Pujols back had a much more damaging and elongated lineup. The Royals still took 4 out of 7 games from the Red Birds and that is always a good thing. It could have been better, but with the way the series has gone in the last few year, Royals fans will take it. Kyle Davies again did not have a great outing but it was nice to see, if not a dominate outing,a solid outing in the first game of the series from Gil Meche. Brian Bannister continued his up and down season. Guillen has cooled off, more on him later, and Mike Aviles is coming back to Earth and his defensive deficiencies are starting to show up. I am in now way saying that Aviles should not continue playing, but the jury on whether he can be a major league shortstop is still out. The biggest concern with David DeJesus is a concern yet again, he is hurt and that is by far the biggest question, can De Jesus stay healthy to play 140-162 games. He has yet to go on the list-for his latest injury-, and he has already been on the dl once this year. So it is his health is definitely a concern. He was injured in a freak way. I will not go as far as calling him “fragile”, but freak accidents are going to happen and if you are predisposed to other injuries, before you know it the player has missed 1-2 months of the season.
The first game against the Orioles was amazing. I certainly have to give kudos to Trey Hillman. While pinch hitting for a right handed batter for a left hander is “playing it by the book”, when the player you are pinch hitting for is still someone (Mark Teahen) that you hope will be a corner stone and building block of your franchise, it takes guts to make that call. The decision was further complicated by the fact that Miguel Olivo is a backup catcher. Trey Hillman went with the percentages, I will say a gutty move, and it worked out perfectly. A two-out two-strike pinch-hit homerun, it doesn’t get much better than that. The homerun was followed by a game winning RBI single by Guillen and of course a solid outing from the back of the bullpen, headlined by another vintage performance by the Mexicutioner, Joakim Soria.
The way the Royals played in the second game, they did not deserve to be in the game at all. The defense was porous. They had no business even being in the game. The Royals made defensive mistakes around the horn and Luke Hochevar did not have the ability to overcome it and gave up six runs. The bullpen came in and gave up another run. The Royals did a good job of fighting back and giving Alex Gordon a chance to tie the game or take the lead in the ninth inning. He struck out, but the game was not lost in the ninth it was lost much earlier on sloppy play and mental mistakes by the defense.
If you are wondering why I have not talked about Jose Guillen and everything that is swirling around him, it certainly has nothing to do with me avoiding the issue and I certainly have my thoughts on Guillen. I am going to watch Guillen tonight and after the game tonight, I am going to put my thoughts down on paper for everyone to see.
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Indians Suffer Crushing Defeat to Sox 3-2
In a season of tough losses, Tuesday night's 3-2 extra inning loss to the White Sox could very well be right near the top. The Indians hung in there against a team that they are trying as hard as they can keep pace with, and on a night where they tried to get their deficit back down to 9.5 games, Joe Borowski did what some say he does best - blow a save.
The Indians took a 2-1 lead in the top of the 10th when Casey Blake hit a solo homer to left. Borowski came on, and gave it back, but of course not till he got the first two outs, making it even tougher to swallow. He got Joe Crede to ground out, and then struck out Nick Swisher. Then with the game looking like it belonged to the Tribe, Jo-Bo imploeded, giving up a solo homer to Alexei Ramirez, just his 6th of the year.
As if that was hard enough to watch, the implosion continued. Pinch-hitter Dewayne Wise singled, stole second, as everyone usually does vs Borowski, then scored when Orlando Cabrera singled to center, and Wise came in with the winning run to make it 3-2. They don't come much tougher than this.
As they have done a ton of times this season, the Indians wasted a good outing from Cliff Lee, as he went 8 innings, allowing one earned run on six hits, walking one and striking out three. Lee dropped his ERA to 2.26, but could not get any run support to move his record past 11-1. He allowed a run in the 2nd, then the Indians tied it in the 6th when Kelly Shoppach hit a homer to left to make it 1-1.
All that aside, the end was painful to watch. The team falls to a full 10 games under .500 at 37-47. Instead of being 9.5 back of the Sox if they could have hung on to win, they now fall 11.5 back, and are still in last in the AL Central. The time to start making moves is nearing, and games like this one only made that point all the more clear.
The Indians took a 2-1 lead in the top of the 10th when Casey Blake hit a solo homer to left. Borowski came on, and gave it back, but of course not till he got the first two outs, making it even tougher to swallow. He got Joe Crede to ground out, and then struck out Nick Swisher. Then with the game looking like it belonged to the Tribe, Jo-Bo imploeded, giving up a solo homer to Alexei Ramirez, just his 6th of the year.
As if that was hard enough to watch, the implosion continued. Pinch-hitter Dewayne Wise singled, stole second, as everyone usually does vs Borowski, then scored when Orlando Cabrera singled to center, and Wise came in with the winning run to make it 3-2. They don't come much tougher than this.
As they have done a ton of times this season, the Indians wasted a good outing from Cliff Lee, as he went 8 innings, allowing one earned run on six hits, walking one and striking out three. Lee dropped his ERA to 2.26, but could not get any run support to move his record past 11-1. He allowed a run in the 2nd, then the Indians tied it in the 6th when Kelly Shoppach hit a homer to left to make it 1-1.
All that aside, the end was painful to watch. The team falls to a full 10 games under .500 at 37-47. Instead of being 9.5 back of the Sox if they could have hung on to win, they now fall 11.5 back, and are still in last in the AL Central. The time to start making moves is nearing, and games like this one only made that point all the more clear.
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