The signing will please contrarians immensely, because that 2008 ERA is such a deliciously large target, and the truth is that he wasn't better than that. He was exactly that.
That comes from TwinsGeek, the grandfather of Twins bloggers, and a more obvious call-out I haven't seen in a long time. (The name of my blog when I wrote for the Geek on his TwinsTerritory.com site was "Contrarian Bias".)
I wouldn't say I'm pleased with the signing necessarily, though -- I'm a bit more contrarian even than that. For starters, both the Geek and Gleeman seem to think that the Ayala signing guarantees him a spot in the bullpen, but I don't think that's a given: for starters, the link from Gleeman's analysis to the Strib story discussing the signing doesn't quote anybody in the Twins organization saying what they expect Ayala's role to be. (The only comment from a Twins exec is Bill Smith saying, in effect, "No comment.") The quote about Ayala competing for the setup job is from Ayala's agent, who of course believes that's what his client is doing to do, because that's why he convinced his client to sign the contract (even though, as far as we can tell, he hasn't actually...y'know...signed a contract yet. See below.)
Yes, Ron Gardenhire has a tendency to favor veterans over young players, but he's got a stronger tendency to favor players who've produced for him to players he doesn't know well who struggle, regardless of age (see how quickly Gardy dropped Phil Nevin from the lineup in 2006, or Bret Boone in 2005).
Also, the Twins have been known to sign veterans in the off-season, invite them to spring training, and then release them before the season:
2005: Andy Fox, Eric Munson, C.J. Nitkowski
2006: Darrell May, Ryan Glynn
2007: Randy Choate
2008: Randy Kiesler
Of course, you probably don't remember many if any of these guys -- I sure didn't, until I looked them up on baseball-reference.com.
Oddest of all, there doesn't seem to be any indication that Ayala has actually been signed: the most bizarre of the stories out there was posted to MLB.com and penned by Doug Miller with the headline "Twins add Ayala to relief corp", which begins with the following sentence:
The Twins made a move toward shoring up their bullpen Friday, signing right-hander Luis Ayala to a one-year, $1.3 million contract, according to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.
And ending with this sentence:
Twins GM Bill Smith declined comment, keeping with team policy of not discussing negotiations.
Huh? If the player signed a contract, aren't you done negotiating with him? (By the way, the Strib story referenced by Miller? That's the Christiansen story linked to by Gleeman, which says only that the Twins and Ayala have reached an agreement.
So much for sports journalism.)
The Geek seems to think Ayala's troubles in 2008 are a mystery, since he still struck out plenty. Gleeman seems to think Ayala was unlucky, which is normally an argument I'd agree with -- in this case, though, even Ayala's fielding-independent ERA for 2008 posts at 4.47, which isn't a mark that most Twins fans will feel comfortable with from a set-up reliever.
I'll agree with Gleeman that Ayala's numbers make him look to be about the fifth man deep in a good AL bullpen, and not a setup-guy at all; what I'll disagree with is Gleeman's assertion that Ayala's very presence in spring training will make it hard for Phil Humber or Bobby Korecky to make the opening day roster. I think if Ayala has an outstanding spring he'll be on the roster and might even be the Twins first set-up man of the season, but if his spring goes poorly (and he's starting it out with a stint in the World Baseball Classic, pitching for his native Mexico), I think the Twins brass, Gardenhire included, would find it a lot easier to cut a $1.3 million veteran with no history with the franchise than a guy who's been in the organization since 2003 (Korecky was the PTBNL in the Eric Milton trade back in 2003 in which the Twins also acquired Carlos Silva and Nick Punto), or a guy who was in a package of players for arguably the best starting pitcher in Twins history (Humber).
Oh well, I guess this is actually a lot closer to a thousand words than three hundred. Just goes to show you how you can get carried away about even the smallest things in life. Perhaps I'd have been better off simply showing a picture.
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